Middlesbrough 0-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Middlesbrough at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Middlesbrough vs Hull City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hull City make the trip to Riverside Stadium to face Middlesbrough in Championship, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Monday 29 December 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Middlesbrough (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Middlesbrough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Middlesbrough's home record at Riverside Stadium: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Championship appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hull City have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hull City's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Middlesbrough against 1.60 for Hull City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Middlesbrough register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Hull City in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Middlesbrough have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 8 meetings, with Hull City managing just 2 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2025, ended 4–1 with Middlesbrough winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Middlesbrough and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Middlesbrough half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Middlesbrough 54% versus Hull City 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Middlesbrough 48% | Hull City 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Middlesbrough 1.68 xG and Hull City 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Middlesbrough attack 1.062 / defence 0.953 | Hull City attack 1.319 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.159. Hull City have an above-average attack strength of 1.319 — the away xG of 1.46 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 69 Middlesbrough games / 69 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Middlesbrough 42% | Draw 25% | Hull City 33%. Fair-value odds: Middlesbrough 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Hull City 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Middlesbrough at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Middlesbrough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Middlesbrough 70% | Hull City 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Middlesbrough vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Riverside Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 29 Dec 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Middlesbrough 42% | Draw 25% | Hull City 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Middlesbrough 1.68 / Hull City 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Middlesbrough attack 1.062 / def 0.953 | Hull City attack 1.319 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.159 • Poisson stance: Middlesbrough (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Middlesbrough xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Hull City xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Middlesbrough vs Hull City kick off?
Middlesbrough vs Hull City kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 29 December 2025 at Riverside Stadium.
What was the final score in Middlesbrough vs Hull City?
Middlesbrough 0 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Middlesbrough vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Riverside Stadium.
What competition is Middlesbrough vs Hull City part of?
Middlesbrough vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Middlesbrough vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Middlesbrough a 42% chance of winning, Hull City a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Middlesbrough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Middlesbrough and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Middlesbrough vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Hull City?
Record (8 meetings): Middlesbrough 5W | Draws 1 | Hull City 2W.
What form are Middlesbrough and Hull City in?
Middlesbrough (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Hull City (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Middlesbrough's attack at 1.06x the league average against Hull City's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.32x) against Middlesbrough's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Middlesbrough Win
42%
2.37
25%
3.96
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Middlesbrough xG
Total xG
3.14
1.46
Hull City xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
10%
10.15
6%
16.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.6 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Middlesbrough vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Middlesbrough and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Middlesbrough and 1.46 for Hull City, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Middlesbrough vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Middlesbrough come into this having played 69 games, going 30W 17D 22L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D. The sample for Middlesbrough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.26 PPG from 69 outings (23W 18D 28L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Middlesbrough against 1.26 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Middlesbrough's home form reads 18W 9D 7L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.21 points per game from 34 outings (11W 8D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Middlesbrough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Middlesbrough are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.20 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Middlesbrough
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Middlesbrough and Hull City in coming into this match?
Middlesbrough have gone 30W 17D 22L in their last 69 games (1.55 PPG), while Hull City have gone 23W 18D 28L in their last 69 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Middlesbrough at home or Hull City away?
Middlesbrough's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Middlesbrough at home: 1.85 PPG; Hull City away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Hull City have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Middlesbrough won 1-4 on 5 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Middlesbrough have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Middlesbrough
1
Draws
4
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, Middlesbrough have won 5, Hull City have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Middlesbrough and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Hull City 1-0 Middlesbrough.
Who has won more matches between Middlesbrough and Hull City?
Middlesbrough have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hull City see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Middlesbrough 50%, Hull City 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Middlesbrough) and 44% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Middlesbrough keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Middlesbrough have failed to score in 26% of games; Hull City in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Middlesbrough home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Middlesbrough play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Middlesbrough's recent matches and 53% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Middlesbrough vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Middlesbrough's recent games and 44% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Middlesbrough and Hull City tend to score early?
Middlesbrough have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Hull City in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hull City defy the odds to beat Middlesbrough 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Middlesbrough 0-1 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 1.68 xG and Hull City 1.46 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Middlesbrough fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 1.06 / defence 0.95 against Hull City attack 1.32 / defence 1.14, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 42% | Draw 25% | Hull City 33%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Hull City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 48%, Hull City 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Middlesbrough's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hull City's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Middlesbrough 1.55 PPG, Hull City 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Hull City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.