Leicester 1-3 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leicester at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Leicester vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Power Stadium plays host to Leicester versus QPR in Championship, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Saturday 14 March 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Leicester have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Leicester's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 games at King Power Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Leicester are significantly better at King Power Stadium than their overall form suggests.
QPR's overall Championship record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Leicester, 0.80 for QPR — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Leicester lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 1–4 with QPR winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Leicester half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
QPR half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Leicester 61% and QPR 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 60% | QPR 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.39 xG and QPR 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 0.984 / defence 1.264 | QPR attack 0.742 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.197. Data: 37 Leicester games / 83 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leicester 42% | Draw 29% | QPR 29%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | QPR 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Leicester as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Leicester if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Leicester 70% | QPR 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Mar 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 42% | Draw 29% | QPR 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Leicester 1.39 / QPR 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 0.984 / def 1.264 | QPR attack 0.742 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Leicester (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
1.12
QPR xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leicester vs QPR kick off?
Leicester vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 March 2026 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs QPR?
Leicester 1 - 3 QPR.
Where is Leicester vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs QPR part of?
Leicester vs QPR is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 42% chance of winning, QPR a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Leicester and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Leicester vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and QPR?
Record (3 meetings): Leicester 1W | Draws 0 | QPR 2W.
What form are Leicester and QPR in?
Leicester (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. QPR (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Leicester's attack at 0.98x the league average against QPR's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — QPR's attack (0.74x) against Leicester's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 37/83 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
42%
2.40
29%
3.41
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.51
1.12
QPR xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
7%
13.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Leicester and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Leicester and 1.12 for QPR, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 75 outings, Leicester have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 17W 18D 40L record — D-D-L-D-W across the most recent five.
QPR's form line: 26W 18D 31L from 75 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Leicester against 1.28 for QPR. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Leicester have posted 1.08 PPG from 37 outings (11W 7D 19L).
On the road, QPR have gone 11W 10D 16L from 37 away games — 1.16 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Leicester are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.20 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leicester have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 75 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leicester and QPR in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 17W 18D 40L in their last 75 games (0.92 PPG), while QPR have gone 26W 18D 31L in their last 75 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or QPR away?
QPR's away record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.08 PPG; QPR away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
QPR go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: QPR won 4-1 on 20 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Leicester have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Leicester
0
Draws
3
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and QPR?
From 4 meetings on record, Leicester have won 1, QPR have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Leicester 1-3 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and QPR?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 51%, QPR 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Leicester) and 46% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Leicester have failed to score in 35% of games; QPR in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leicester play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Leicester's recent matches and 51% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leicester vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Leicester's recent games and 46% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leicester and QPR tend to score early?
Leicester have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, QPR in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
QPR cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Leicester.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Leicester 1-3 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 38, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.39 xG and QPR 1.12 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. QPR outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 0.98 / defence 1.26 against QPR attack 0.74 / defence 1.10, drawn from 37/83 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 42% | Draw 29% | QPR 29%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual QPR win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 60%, QPR 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
QPR's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leicester 0.92 PPG, QPR 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Leicester (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. QPR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.