Leicester 1-2 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Leicester at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Leicester face QPR.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
King Power Stadium plays host to Leicester versus QPR in Championship (matchday 35). Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Leicester have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Leicester's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
QPR's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for Leicester, 1.50 for QPR — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Leicester edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 28 Oct 2023, ended Leicester 2–1 QPR — a Leicester win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Leicester half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
QPR half-time and goal-timing data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leicester 56% versus QPR 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leicester 61% | QPR 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leicester 1.44 xG and QPR 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leicester attack 1.230 / defence 0.813 | QPR attack 0.724 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.269. QPR's attack rating of 0.724 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.75. Data: built from Leicester's last 34 games and QPR's last 80.
Result probabilities: Leicester 54% | Draw 27% | QPR 19%. Fair-value odds: Leicester 1.86 | Draw 3.71 | QPR 5.16. Leicester hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Leicester as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Leicester if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Leicester 50% (last 10 home games) | QPR 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leicester vs QPR | Competition: Championship, matchday 35 | Venue: King Power Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leicester 54% | Draw 27% | QPR 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Leicester 1.44 / QPR 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: Leicester attack 1.230 / def 0.813 | QPR attack 0.724 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Leicester (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Leicester xG
Expected Goals
0.75
QPR xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Leicester vs QPR FAQs
What time does Leicester vs QPR kick off?
Leicester vs QPR kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at King Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Leicester vs QPR?
Leicester 1 - 2 QPR.
Where is Leicester vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at King Power Stadium.
What competition is Leicester vs QPR part of?
Leicester vs QPR is a Championship fixture (matchday 35) (England).
Who is favourite to win Leicester vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Leicester a 54% chance of winning, QPR a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leicester vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Leicester and QPR will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Leicester vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Leicester's attack at 1.23x the league average against QPR's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — QPR's attack (0.72x) against Leicester's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from Leicester's last 34 games and QPR's last 80 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
54%
1.86
27%
3.71
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Leicester xG
Total xG
2.19
0.75
QPR xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
5%
21.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.1 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Leicester vs QPR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Leicester vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Leicester and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Leicester and 0.75 for QPR, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Leicester vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Leicester have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 34W 10D 28L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
QPR's form line: 19W 17D 36L from 72 games, 1.03 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Leicester are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against QPR.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Leicester have posted 1.64 PPG from their last 36 home games (18W 5D 13L).
On the road, QPR have gone 11W 8D 17L from their last 36 away games — 1.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leicester come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Leicester are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 0.89 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leicester
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
Leicester (Home) vs QPR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Leicester
Current Season
QPR
Current Season
❓ Leicester vs QPR Form FAQs
What form are Leicester and QPR in coming into this match?
Leicester have gone 34W 10D 28L in their last 72 games (1.56 PPG), while QPR have gone 19W 17D 36L in their last 72 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leicester at home or QPR away?
Leicester's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leicester at home: 1.64 PPG; QPR away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
QPR have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: QPR won QPR 4-1 Leicester on 20 Dec 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Leicester have gone 0W 0D 2L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Leicester
0
Draws
3
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Leicester vs QPR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Leicester and QPR?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Leicester have won 1, QPR have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Leicester and QPR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Leicester 1-3 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Leicester and QPR?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leicester 44%, QPR 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Leicester) and 42% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Leicester keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; QPR in 31%; Leicester have failed to score in 28% of games; QPR in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leicester home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Leicester vs QPR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Leicester and QPR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Leicester's recent matches and 42% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Leicester and QPR matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Leicester's recent games and 42% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leicester and QPR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Leicester's recent matches and 61% of QPR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as QPR defy the odds to beat Leicester 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Leicester 1-2 at King Power Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leicester 1.44 xG and QPR 0.75 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. QPR outscored their 0.75 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leicester attack 1.23 / defence 0.81 against QPR attack 0.72 / defence 0.86, drawn from 34/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leicester 54% | Draw 27% | QPR 19%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a QPR win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leicester 61%, QPR 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leicester's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
QPR's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Leicester arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with QPR winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Leicester (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. QPR (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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