Leeds 2-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Leeds at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leeds vs Plymouth encounter.

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Full Analysis

Elland Road plays host to Leeds versus Plymouth in Championship (matchday 16). Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Leeds have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Leeds's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Plymouth (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Plymouth have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward Leeds. A 1.30 PPG lead over Plymouth (2.20 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Leeds's last 10 home games and Plymouth's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Leeds's games and 70% of Plymouth's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

Trading

Leeds half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

Plymouth half-time and goal-timing data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Leeds 62% and Plymouth 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leeds 62% | Plymouth 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Leeds surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Plymouth have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Leeds 1.83 xG and Plymouth 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leeds attack 1.179 / defence 0.916 | Plymouth attack 0.787 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.224. Plymouth's attack rating of 0.787 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from Leeds's last 15 games and Plymouth's last 15.

Result probabilities: Leeds 60% | Draw 23% | Plymouth 18%. Fair-value odds: Leeds 1.68 | Draw 4.43 | Plymouth 5.62. The model has a clear lean to Leeds (60%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Leeds are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Leeds's last 10 home games and Plymouth's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Leeds 70% (last 10 home games) | Plymouth 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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