Hull City 2-0 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hull City vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Plymouth travel to The MKM Stadium to take on Hull City. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 4 March 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hull City stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Hull City's home record at The MKM Stadium: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Championship appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The MKM Stadium this season.
Plymouth — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Plymouth have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hull City at 1.10 PPG versus Plymouth's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Hull City, 1 for Plymouth and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Hull City trading profile (80 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Plymouth trading profile (80 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 58% versus Plymouth 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 49% | Plymouth 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.65 xG and Plymouth 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.844 / defence 1.236 | Plymouth attack 0.654 / defence 1.450. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.033. Plymouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.450 — this is suppressing Hull City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 80 Hull City games / 80 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 56% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 18%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Plymouth 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Hull City (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hull City as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Hull City 70% | Plymouth 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 4 Mar 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 56% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Hull City 1.65 / Plymouth 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.844 / def 1.236 | Plymouth attack 0.654 / def 1.450 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.033 • Poisson stance: Hull City (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Plymouth xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Plymouth kick off?
Hull City vs Plymouth kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 4 March 2025 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Plymouth?
Hull City 2 - 0 Plymouth.
Where is Hull City vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Plymouth part of?
Hull City vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 56% chance of winning, Plymouth a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hull City and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Plymouth?
Record (3 meetings): Hull City 0W | Draws 2 | Plymouth 1W.
What form are Hull City and Plymouth in?
Hull City (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Plymouth (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hull City's attack rating (0.84) and Plymouth's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 80/80 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
56%
1.77
25%
3.99
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.49
0.83
Plymouth xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
24%
4.09
4%
28.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.5 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Hull City and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Hull City and 0.83 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Plymouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 80 outings, Hull City have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 27W 22D 31L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Plymouth's form line: 19W 24D 37L from 80 games, 1.01 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hull City on 1.29 PPG, Plymouth on 1.01. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hull City have posted 1.15 PPG from 40 outings (10W 16D 14L).
On the road, Plymouth have gone 3W 12D 25L from 40 away games — 0.52 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.01 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hull City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hull City are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.19 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Last 80 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Plymouth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 27W 22D 31L in their last 80 games (1.29 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 19W 24D 37L in their last 80 (1.01 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Plymouth away?
Hull City's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.15 PPG; Plymouth away: 0.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hull City and Plymouth runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hull City's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Hull City
2
Draws
1
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Plymouth?
From 4 meetings on record, Hull City have won 1, Plymouth have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2025, when Hull City 2-0 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 62%, Plymouth 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Hull City) and 45% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Plymouth in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Hull City's recent matches and 42% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Hull City's recent games and 45% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Plymouth tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Plymouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Plymouth 2-0 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.65 xG and Plymouth 0.83 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Plymouth landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.84 / defence 1.24 against Plymouth attack 0.65 / defence 1.45, drawn from 80/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 56% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 18%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 49%, Plymouth 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (80 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Plymouth's trading profile (80 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.29 PPG, Plymouth 1.01 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.