Hull City 3-3 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hull City at 38%, yet in-form Ipswich provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hull City vs Ipswich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hull City host Ipswich at The MKM Stadium in Championship (matchday 45). Kick-off is Saturday 27 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Hull City — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Hull City have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Ipswich have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Ipswich's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ipswich — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Hull City, 1 for Ipswich and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2023, ended Hull City 0–3 Ipswich — a Ipswich win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Hull City in-play and half-time data (last 89 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Ipswich in-play and half-time data (last 89 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 59%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 56% versus Ipswich 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 49% | Ipswich 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.27 xG and Ipswich 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 1.035 / defence 1.029 | Ipswich attack 1.020 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.137. Data: built from Hull City's last 90 games and Ipswich's last 43.
Result probabilities: Hull City 38% | Draw 27% | Ipswich 35%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.62 | Draw 3.68 | Ipswich 2.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hull City are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ipswich (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hull City 60% (last 10 home games) | Ipswich 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Ipswich | Competition: Championship, matchday 45 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 38% | Draw 27% | Ipswich 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Hull City 1.27 / Ipswich 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 1.035 / def 1.029 | Ipswich attack 1.020 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Hull City (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Ipswich xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hull City vs Ipswich FAQs
What time does Hull City vs Ipswich kick off?
Hull City vs Ipswich kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Ipswich?
Hull City 3 - 3 Ipswich.
Where is Hull City vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Ipswich part of?
Hull City vs Ipswich is a Championship fixture (matchday 45) (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 38% chance of winning, Ipswich a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Hull City and Ipswich will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Hull City vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hull City's attack at 1.03x the league average against Ipswich's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ipswich's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hull City's last 90 games and Ipswich's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
38%
2.62
27%
3.68
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.46
1.19
Ipswich xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
12%
8.63
10%
10.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hull City vs Ipswich Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Hull City and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Hull City and 1.19 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 89 outings, Hull City have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 32W 28D 29L record — W-D-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Ipswich's form line: 54W 25D 10L from 89 games, 2.10 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Ipswich are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hull City.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hull City have posted 1.41 PPG from their last 44 home games (16W 14D 14L).
On the road, Ipswich have gone 23W 13D 8L from their last 44 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ipswich come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hull City are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 2.09 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 89 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Ipswich
Current Season
Hull City (Home) vs Ipswich (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hull City
Current Season
Ipswich
Current Season
❓ Hull City vs Ipswich Form FAQs
What form are Hull City and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 32W 28D 29L in their last 89 games (1.39 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 54W 25D 10L in their last 89 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Ipswich away?
Ipswich's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.41 PPG; Ipswich away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Hull City or Ipswich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hull City have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Ipswich in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. They cover more than one competition — Championship, Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Oct 2023, when Ipswich won Ipswich 3-0 Hull City.
Hull City's record when hosting Ipswich specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Hull City
2
Draws
3
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Hull City vs Ipswich H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Ipswich?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Hull City have won 0, Ipswich have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Ipswich last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Hull City 2-2 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 52%, Ipswich 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Hull City) and 48% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: Ipswich in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hull City vs Ipswich Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hull City and Ipswich matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Hull City's recent matches and 48% of Ipswich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hull City and Ipswich matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Hull City's recent games and 48% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Ipswich matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Hull City's recent matches and 75% of Ipswich's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hull City and Ipswich share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 45, as Hull City and Ipswich drew 3-3 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.27 xG and Ipswich 1.19 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ipswich outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 1.03 / defence 1.03 against Ipswich attack 1.02 / defence 0.91, drawn from 90/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 38% | Draw 27% | Ipswich 35%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 49%, Ipswich 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (89 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Ipswich's trading profile (89 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ipswich arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ipswich (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.98 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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