Hull City 1-0 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hull City (40%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hull City face Cardiff.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees Cardiff travel to The MKM Stadium to take on Hull City. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 February 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Hull City — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hull City at The MKM Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The MKM Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cardiff stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Cardiff away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Hull City have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Hull City hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Cardiff, with 0 draws in between.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2022, ended 3–2 with Hull City winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Hull City and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Hull City in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Cardiff in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 40% versus Cardiff 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 39% | Cardiff 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.14 xG and Cardiff 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.941 / defence 1.122 | Cardiff attack 0.721 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.156. Data: 75 Hull City games / 75 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 40% | Draw 30% | Cardiff 30%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Cardiff 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hull City are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Hull City 60% | Cardiff 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 40% | Draw 30% | Cardiff 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Hull City 1.14 / Cardiff 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.941 / def 1.122 | Cardiff attack 0.721 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Hull City (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Cardiff xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Cardiff kick off?
Hull City vs Cardiff kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Cardiff?
Hull City 1 - 0 Cardiff.
Where is Hull City vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Cardiff part of?
Hull City vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 40% chance of winning, Cardiff a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Hull City and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Cardiff?
Record (3 meetings): Hull City 3W | Draws 0 | Cardiff 0W.
What form are Hull City and Cardiff in?
Hull City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Cardiff (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hull City's attack at 0.94x the league average against Cardiff's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
40%
2.47
30%
3.34
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.08
0.94
Cardiff xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
9%
10.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 11.7 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Hull City and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Hull City and 0.94 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hull City come into this having played 75 games, going 24W 16D 35L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Cardiff sit at 1.09 PPG from 75 outings (22W 16D 37L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hull City on 1.17 PPG, Cardiff on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hull City's home form reads 12W 7D 18L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Cardiff have taken 1.08 points per game from 37 outings (11W 7D 19L).
Goals in Recent Form
Hull City are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 0.95 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Current Season
Cardiff
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 24W 16D 35L in their last 75 games (1.17 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 22W 16D 37L in their last 75 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Cardiff away?
Hull City's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.16 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Dec 2023, when Hull City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hull City's record when hosting Cardiff specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Hull City
0
Draws
1
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Cardiff?
From 8 meetings on record, Hull City have won 7, Cardiff have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2025, when Cardiff 1-0 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Cardiff?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 46%, Cardiff 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Hull City) and 54% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 38% of games; Cardiff in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Cardiff?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Hull City's recent matches and 49% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hull City vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Hull City's recent games and 54% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Cardiff tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hull City edge out Cardiff 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Cardiff 1-0 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.14 xG and Cardiff 0.94 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cardiff landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.94 / defence 1.12 against Cardiff attack 0.72 / defence 0.97, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 40% | Draw 30% | Cardiff 30%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 39%, Cardiff 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Cardiff's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.17 PPG, Cardiff 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.