Fulham 1-1 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fulham at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fulham vs Bournemouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Bournemouth travel to Craven Cottage to take on Fulham. The game is scheduled for Friday 3 December 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Fulham have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fulham's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Craven Cottage this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Craven Cottage.
Bournemouth — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth's away record: 6W 3D 1L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fulham 2.30 PPG, Bournemouth 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Fulham trading profile (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Bournemouth trading profile (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fulham 55% versus Bournemouth 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fulham 60% | Bournemouth 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fulham 1.40 xG and Bournemouth 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fulham attack 1.475 / defence 0.898 | Bournemouth attack 0.974 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.018 / away 1.074. Fulham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.475 — their λ of 1.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 20 Fulham games / 20 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fulham 46% | Draw 30% | Bournemouth 24%. Fair-value odds: Fulham 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Bournemouth 4.17. Fulham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fulham as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fulham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Fulham 50% | Bournemouth 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fulham vs Bournemouth | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Craven Cottage • Kick-off: Friday 3 Dec 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fulham 46% | Draw 30% | Bournemouth 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Fulham 1.40 / Bournemouth 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Fulham attack 1.475 / def 0.898 | Bournemouth attack 0.974 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.018 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Fulham (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Fulham xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Bournemouth xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fulham vs Bournemouth kick off?
Fulham vs Bournemouth kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 3 December 2021 at Craven Cottage.
What was the final score in Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Fulham 1 - 1 Bournemouth.
Where is Fulham vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Craven Cottage.
What competition is Fulham vs Bournemouth part of?
Fulham vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Fulham a 46% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Fulham and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Fulham vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Bournemouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fulham and Bournemouth in?
Fulham (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Bournemouth (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fulham's attack rating (1.48) and Bournemouth's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus Fulham's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
46%
2.17
30%
3.30
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Fulham xG
Total xG
2.34
0.94
Bournemouth xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
18%
5.55
6%
17.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.0 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.7 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Fulham and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Fulham and 0.94 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Fulham vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 20 outings, Fulham have picked up 2.15 PPG on a 13W 4D 3L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bournemouth's form line: 12W 6D 2L from 20 games, 2.10 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fulham on 2.15 PPG, Bournemouth on 2.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fulham have posted 2.30 PPG from 10 outings (7W 2D 1L).
On the road, Bournemouth have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away games — 2.10 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Fulham are averaging 2.45 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Fulham's scoring rate against Bournemouth's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Bournemouth in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fulham
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fulham and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Fulham have gone 13W 4D 3L in their last 20 games (2.15 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 12W 6D 2L in their last 20 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fulham at home or Bournemouth away?
Fulham's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fulham at home: 2.30 PPG; Bournemouth away: 2.10 PPG.
Have Fulham or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fulham have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, Premier League all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Bournemouth have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2023, when Bournemouth won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fulham's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Fulham
4
Draws
5
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fulham and Bournemouth?
From 10 meetings on record, Fulham have won 1, Bournemouth have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fulham and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Fulham 0-1 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Fulham and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time.
Bournemouth see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fulham 50%, Bournemouth 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Fulham) and 20% (Bournemouth).
On the defensive side: Fulham keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Bournemouth in 70%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fulham home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fulham play Bournemouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fulham's recent matches and 30% of Bournemouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fulham vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Fulham's recent games and 20% of Bournemouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fulham and Bournemouth tend to score early?
Fulham have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Bournemouth in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fulham and Bournemouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fulham and Bournemouth finished level at 1-1 at Craven Cottage, Regular Season - 21, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fulham 1.40 xG and Bournemouth 0.94 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fulham attack 1.48 / defence 0.90 against Bournemouth attack 0.97 / defence 0.93, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fulham 46% | Draw 30% | Bournemouth 24%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fulham 60%, Bournemouth 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fulham's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Bournemouth's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fulham 2.15 PPG, Bournemouth 2.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.