Derby 1-0 Preston – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Preston fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Derby and Preston meet at Pride Park Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 40. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Derby have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Pride Park Stadium, Derby have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pride Park Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Preston (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Championship this season, Preston have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Derby lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Preston half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 39% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 50% versus Preston 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 40% | Preston 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.20 xG and Preston 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.043 / defence 1.076 | Preston attack 0.676 / defence 1.080. League average goals — home 1.063 / away 1.092. Data: 39 Derby games / 38 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 45% | Draw 30% | Preston 24%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Preston 4.17. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Derby 50% | Preston 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 45% | Draw 30% | Preston 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Derby 1.20 / Preston 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.043 / def 1.076 | Preston attack 0.676 / def 1.080 | league avg home 1.063 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Derby (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Preston xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Preston kick off?
Derby vs Preston kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Preston?
Derby 1 - 0 Preston.
Where is Derby vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Preston part of?
Derby vs Preston is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 45% chance of winning, Preston a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Derby and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Preston?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 1 | Preston 0W.
What form are Derby and Preston in?
Derby (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Preston (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Derby's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Preston's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Preston's attack (0.68x) against Derby's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
45%
2.21
30%
3.28
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Derby xG
Total xG
1.99
0.79
Preston xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
7%
13.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 10.8 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.0 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Derby and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Derby and 0.79 for Preston, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derby come into this having played 38 games, going 11W 12D 15L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D.
On the other side, Preston sit at 1.34 PPG from 38 outings (12W 15D 11L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Derby against 1.34 for Preston. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Derby's home form reads 9W 6D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Preston have taken 1.33 points per game from 18 outings (6W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Derby are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.05 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Preston
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Preston in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 11W 12D 15L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Preston have gone 12W 15D 11L in their last 38 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Preston away?
Derby's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.83 PPG; Preston away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Derby or Preston been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Preston in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Preston — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Derby
2
Draws
1
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Preston?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 3, Preston have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Preston 0-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Preston?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Preston see a goal before the break in 39% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 56%, Preston 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Derby) and 39% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Preston in 39%; Preston in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Preston?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Derby's recent matches and 33% of Preston's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Derby's recent games and 39% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Preston tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Preston in 39% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Derby edge out Preston 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Preston 1-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.20 xG and Preston 0.79 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.04 / defence 1.08 against Preston attack 0.68 / defence 1.08, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 45% | Draw 30% | Preston 24%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 40%, Preston 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Preston's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.18 PPG, Preston 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.