Derby 1-2 Ipswich – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ipswich at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Ipswich encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Pride Park plays host to Derby versus Ipswich in Championship, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 7 February 2026 at 12:31 UTC.
Form
Derby (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Derby's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Pride Park this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ipswich have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Ipswich away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Derby, 2.00 for Ipswich — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Derby register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Ipswich in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Derby 0W, Ipswich 2W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Derby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Ipswich goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 58% versus Ipswich 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 43% | Ipswich 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.16 xG and Ipswich 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.869 / defence 1.099 | Ipswich attack 1.088 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.143. Data: 76 Derby games / 29 Ipswich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 30% | Draw 29% | Ipswich 40%. Fair-value odds: Derby 3.33 | Draw 3.45 | Ipswich 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ipswich as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ipswich if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Derby 70% | Ipswich 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Ipswich | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Pride Park • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Feb 2026, 12:31 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 30% | Draw 29% | Ipswich 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Derby 1.16 / Ipswich 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.869 / def 1.099 | Ipswich attack 1.088 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.314 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Ipswich xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Ipswich kick off?
Derby vs Ipswich kicked off at 12:31 on Saturday 7 February 2026 at Pride Park.
What was the final score in Derby vs Ipswich?
Derby 1 - 2 Ipswich.
Where is Derby vs Ipswich being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park.
What competition is Derby vs Ipswich part of?
Derby vs Ipswich is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Ipswich?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 30% chance of winning, Ipswich a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Ipswich?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Derby and Ipswich will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Ipswich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Ipswich?
Record (3 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 1 | Ipswich 2W.
What form are Derby and Ipswich in?
Derby (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Ipswich (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Derby's attack at 0.87x the league average against Ipswich's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ipswich's attack (1.09x) against Derby's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 76/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
30%
3.29
29%
3.41
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Derby xG
Total xG
2.52
1.37
Ipswich xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
8%
12.89
13%
7.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Ipswich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Derby and Ipswich expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Derby and 1.37 for Ipswich, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Ipswich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 67 outings, Derby have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 21W 20D 26L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five.
Ipswich's form line: 18W 19D 30L from 67 games, 1.09 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Derby against 1.09 for Ipswich. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Derby have posted 1.16 PPG from 32 outings (9W 10D 13L).
On the road, Ipswich have gone 7W 10D 15L from 32 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derby are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Ipswich are on 1.27 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Ipswich
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Ipswich in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 21W 20D 26L in their last 67 games (1.24 PPG), while Ipswich have gone 18W 19D 30L in their last 67 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Ipswich away?
Derby's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.16 PPG; Ipswich away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derby have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ipswich — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Derby
1
Draws
3
Ipswich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Ipswich?
From 4 meetings on record, Derby have won 0, Ipswich have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Ipswich last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Derby 1-2 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Ipswich?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 50%, Ipswich 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Derby) and 56% (Ipswich).
On the defensive side: Derby have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Ipswich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Ipswich?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Derby's games and 69% of Ipswich's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Ipswich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Derby's recent games and 56% of Ipswich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Ipswich tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Ipswich in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ipswich edge out Derby 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ipswich beat Derby 1-2 at Pride Park, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.16 xG and Ipswich 1.37 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Ipswich attack 1.09 / defence 1.01, drawn from 76/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 30% | Draw 29% | Ipswich 40%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 43%, Ipswich 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (67 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Ipswich's trading profile (67 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.24 PPG, Ipswich 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ipswich win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.