Derby 1-1 Coventry – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Coventry fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 39 sees Coventry travel to Pride Park Stadium to take on Derby. The game is scheduled for Saturday 19 March 2022, 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Championship matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Derby have posted 7W 1D 2L at Pride Park Stadium — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pride Park Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Coventry — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Coventry's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Derby 0.90 PPG, Coventry 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Derby, 0 for Coventry and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Derby in-play tendencies (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Coventry in-play tendencies (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 49% versus Coventry 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 40% | Coventry 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.58 xG and Coventry 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.069 / defence 1.097 | Coventry attack 0.954 / defence 1.367. League average goals — home 1.079 / away 1.060. Coventry bring a strong defensive rating of 1.367 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Derby games / 37 Coventry games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 48% | Draw 25% | Coventry 27%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Coventry 3.70. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Derby 50% | Coventry 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Coventry | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 48% | Draw 25% | Coventry 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Derby 1.58 / Coventry 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.069 / def 1.097 | Coventry attack 0.954 / def 1.367 | league avg home 1.079 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Derby (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Coventry xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Coventry kick off?
Derby vs Coventry kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Coventry?
Derby 1 - 1 Coventry.
Where is Derby vs Coventry being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Coventry part of?
Derby vs Coventry is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Coventry?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 48% chance of winning, Coventry a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Coventry?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Derby and Coventry will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Coventry have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Coventry?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 1 | Coventry 0W.
What form are Derby and Coventry in?
Derby (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Coventry (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Derby's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Coventry's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. The same calculation in reverse, Coventry's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
48%
2.08
25%
3.97
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Derby xG
Total xG
2.69
1.11
Coventry xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
6%
18.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.9 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Coventry?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Derby and Coventry expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Derby and 1.11 for Coventry, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Coventry?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Derby's recent record stands at 11W 11D 15L from 37 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-L in the last five.
Coventry, meanwhile, have gone 15W 9D 13L across 37 games — 1.46 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.19 PPG, Coventry on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Derby have managed 9W 5D 3L from 17 games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Coventry's away record stands at 5W 5D 7L across 17 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Coventry are on 1.30 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Coventry
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Coventry in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 11W 11D 15L in their last 37 games (1.19 PPG), while Coventry have gone 15W 9D 13L in their last 37 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Coventry away?
Derby's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.88 PPG; Coventry away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Derby or Coventry been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Coventry in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derby and Coventry runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Coventry have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Derby's record when hosting Coventry specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Derby
2
Draws
2
Coventry
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Coventry?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 2, Coventry have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Coventry last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Coventry 3-2 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Coventry are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 53%, Coventry 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Derby) and 47% (Coventry).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Coventry in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Coventry away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Coventry?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Derby's recent matches and 53% of Coventry's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Coventry usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Derby's recent games and 47% of Coventry's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Coventry tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Coventry in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby and Coventry share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 39, as Derby and Coventry drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.58 xG and Coventry 1.11 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.07 / defence 1.10 against Coventry attack 0.95 / defence 1.37, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 48% | Draw 25% | Coventry 27%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 40%, Coventry 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Coventry's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.19 PPG, Coventry 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.