Derby 2-2 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Birmingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 29 as Derby welcome Birmingham to Pride Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 January 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Pride Park Stadium, Derby have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Pride Park Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Birmingham stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Birmingham away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Derby are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Derby, 1 for Birmingham and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2021, ended 0–2 with Birmingham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Derby in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Birmingham in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 52% versus Birmingham 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 37% | Birmingham 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.74 xG and Birmingham 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 1.047 / defence 0.981 | Birmingham attack 0.763 / defence 1.595. League average goals — home 1.044 / away 1.137. Birmingham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.595 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Derby games / 28 Birmingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 59% | Draw 23% | Birmingham 18%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Birmingham 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Derby (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Derby 50% | Birmingham 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jan 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 59% | Draw 23% | Birmingham 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 47% | xG Derby 1.74 / Birmingham 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 1.047 / def 0.981 | Birmingham attack 0.763 / def 1.595 | league avg home 1.044 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Derby (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Birmingham xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Birmingham kick off?
Derby vs Birmingham kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 30 January 2022 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Birmingham?
Derby 2 - 2 Birmingham.
Where is Derby vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Birmingham part of?
Derby vs Birmingham is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 59% chance of winning, Birmingham a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Derby and Birmingham will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Birmingham?
Record (1 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 0 | Birmingham 1W.
What form are Derby and Birmingham in?
Derby (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Birmingham (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Derby's attack at 1.05x the league average against Birmingham's defence at 1.59x — combine the two and it projects 1.74 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Birmingham's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
59%
1.71
23%
4.27
18%
5.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Derby xG
Total xG
2.59
0.85
Birmingham xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
5.54
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
17%
5.71
Win to Nil
25%
4.00
3%
31.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.1 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Derby and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Derby and 0.85 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Birmingham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Derby come into this having played 27 games, going 8W 11D 8L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Birmingham sit at 1.07 PPG from 27 outings (7W 8D 12L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Birmingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.30 PPG, Birmingham on 1.07. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Derby's home form reads 6W 5D 2L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Birmingham have taken 0.77 points per game from 13 outings (2W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.07 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Birmingham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 8W 11D 8L in their last 27 games (1.30 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 7W 8D 12L in their last 27 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Birmingham away?
Derby's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.77 PPG; Birmingham away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Derby or Birmingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Birmingham in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derby and Birmingham runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derby's record when hosting Birmingham specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Derby
2
Draws
1
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Birmingham?
From 4 meetings on record, Derby have won 1, Birmingham have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Birmingham last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Derby 1-0 Birmingham.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 54%, Birmingham 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Derby) and 38% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Birmingham in 31%; Birmingham in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Birmingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Derby's recent matches and 31% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Birmingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Derby's recent games and 38% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Birmingham tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Birmingham in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby and Birmingham share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby and Birmingham finished level at 2-2 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.74 xG and Birmingham 0.85 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Birmingham outscored their 0.85 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 1.05 / defence 0.98 against Birmingham attack 0.76 / defence 1.59, drawn from 27/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 59% | Draw 23% | Birmingham 18%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 37%, Birmingham 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Birmingham's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.30 PPG, Birmingham 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Birmingham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.