Coventry 0-0 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Coventry at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coventry vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sunderland make the trip to The Coventry Building Society Arena to face Coventry in Championship, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 August 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Coventry have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Coventry have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Coventry's home record at The Coventry Building Society Arena: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Championship appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sunderland (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sunderland have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sunderland's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Coventry, 1.70 for Sunderland — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Coventry 1W, Sunderland 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 2–1 with Coventry winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Coventry goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Sunderland goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coventry 41% versus Sunderland 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coventry 35% | Sunderland 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coventry 1.48 xG and Sunderland 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coventry attack 1.160 / defence 0.891 | Sunderland attack 1.061 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.145. Data: 49 Coventry games / 49 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coventry 46% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 27%. Fair-value odds: Coventry 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Sunderland 3.70. Coventry hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Coventry as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coventry if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Coventry 50% | Sunderland 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coventry vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: The Coventry Building Society Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coventry 46% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Coventry 1.48 / Sunderland 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Coventry attack 1.160 / def 0.891 | Sunderland attack 1.061 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Coventry (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Coventry xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Sunderland xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coventry vs Sunderland kick off?
Coventry vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What was the final score in Coventry vs Sunderland?
Coventry 0 - 0 Sunderland.
Where is Coventry vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What competition is Coventry vs Sunderland part of?
Coventry vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Coventry vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Coventry a 46% chance of winning, Sunderland a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Coventry the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coventry vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Coventry and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Coventry vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and Sunderland?
Record (2 meetings): Coventry 1W | Draws 1 | Sunderland 0W.
What form are Coventry and Sunderland in?
Coventry (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Sunderland (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Coventry's attack at 1.16x the league average against Sunderland's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (1.06x) against Coventry's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coventry Win
46%
2.17
27%
3.73
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Coventry xG
Total xG
2.56
1.08
Sunderland xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
6%
16.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coventry vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Coventry and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Coventry and 1.08 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Coventry vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Coventry come into this having played 51 games, going 20W 18D 13L for 1.53 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Coventry, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sunderland sit at 1.47 PPG from 51 outings (20W 15D 16L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sunderland, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.53 PPG for Coventry against 1.47 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Coventry's home form reads 12W 9D 4L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Sunderland have taken 1.56 points per game from 25 outings (11W 6D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Coventry are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.45 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sunderland in 63%.
Defensively: Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coventry
Early Season
Sunderland
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coventry and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Coventry have gone 20W 18D 13L in their last 51 games (1.53 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 20W 15D 16L in their last 51 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coventry at home or Sunderland away?
Coventry's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coventry at home: 1.80 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Coventry or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Sunderland in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Coventry won 0-3 on 23 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Coventry have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sunderland — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Coventry
4
Draws
1
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and Sunderland?
From 8 meetings on record, Coventry have won 3, Sunderland have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Coventry and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2025, when Sunderland 1-1 Coventry.
Who has won more matches between Coventry and Sunderland?
Coventry have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Coventry are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coventry 44%, Sunderland 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Coventry) and 52% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Coventry keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Sunderland in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coventry home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coventry play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Coventry's recent matches and 56% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Coventry vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Coventry's recent games and 52% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Coventry and Sunderland tend to score early?
Coventry have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Coventry's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coventry and Sunderland finished level at 0-0 at The Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.48 xG and Sunderland 1.08 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Coventry fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Sunderland landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.16 / defence 0.89 against Sunderland attack 1.06 / defence 0.94, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coventry 46% | Draw 27% | Sunderland 27%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 35%, Sunderland 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coventry's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sunderland's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coventry 1.53 PPG, Sunderland 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Coventry (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.