Coventry 4-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Coventry at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Coventry vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Coventry and Fulham meet at The Coventry Building Society Arena in Championship, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 October 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Coventry's overall Championship record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Coventry, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry have gone 5W 0D 0L this season (5 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Coventry Building Society Arena. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Coventry are significantly better at The Coventry Building Society Arena than their overall form suggests.
Fulham (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Championship outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fulham have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Coventry — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Fulham — key trading statistics (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coventry 30% versus Fulham 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coventry 40% | Fulham 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coventry 1.45 xG and Fulham 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coventry attack 1.172 / defence 0.818 | Fulham attack 1.298 / defence 1.161. League average goals — home 1.062 / away 1.142. Fulham have an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — the away xG of 1.21 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Coventry games / 10 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Coventry 41% | Draw 29% | Fulham 30%. Fair-value odds: Coventry 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Fulham 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Coventry at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Coventry if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Coventry 40% | Fulham 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coventry vs Fulham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: The Coventry Building Society Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coventry 41% | Draw 29% | Fulham 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Coventry 1.45 / Fulham 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Coventry attack 1.172 / def 0.818 | Fulham attack 1.298 / def 1.161 | league avg home 1.062 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Coventry (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Coventry xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Fulham xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Coventry vs Fulham kick off?
Coventry vs Fulham kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What was the final score in Coventry vs Fulham?
Coventry 4 - 1 Fulham.
Where is Coventry vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What competition is Coventry vs Fulham part of?
Coventry vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Coventry vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Coventry a 41% chance of winning, Fulham a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Coventry the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coventry vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Coventry and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Coventry vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and Fulham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Coventry and Fulham in?
Coventry (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Fulham (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Coventry's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Fulham's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (1.30x) against Coventry's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coventry Win
41%
2.45
29%
3.42
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Coventry xG
Total xG
2.66
1.21
Fulham xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
7%
14.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Coventry vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Coventry and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Coventry and 1.21 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Coventry vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Coventry come into this having played 10 games, going 6W 1D 3L for 1.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Coventry is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 2.00 PPG from 10 outings (6W 2D 2L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.90 PPG for Coventry against 2.00 for Fulham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Coventry's home form reads 5W 0D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.90 PPG overall — Coventry are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 2.00 points per game from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Coventry come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Coventry are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 2.20 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coventry have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games; Fulham in 70%.
Defensively: Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coventry
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Coventry and Fulham in coming into this match?
Coventry have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 games (1.90 PPG), while Fulham have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coventry at home or Fulham away?
Coventry's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coventry at home: 3.00 PPG; Fulham away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Coventry or Fulham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Fulham in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Coventry
0
Draws
0
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and Fulham?
From 2 meetings on record, Coventry have won 2, Fulham have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Coventry and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2022, when Fulham 1-3 Coventry.
Who has won more matches between Coventry and Fulham?
Coventry have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Coventry are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coventry 40%, Fulham 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Coventry and 60% for Fulham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Coventry keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coventry home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Coventry play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Coventry's games and 80% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Coventry vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Coventry's matches and 60% of Fulham's.
Do Coventry and Fulham tend to score early?
Coventry have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Fulham in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Coventry run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Fulham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Coventry beat Fulham 4-1 at The Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.45 xG and Fulham 1.21 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Coventry beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.17 / defence 0.82 against Fulham attack 1.30 / defence 1.16, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coventry 41% | Draw 29% | Fulham 30%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 40%, Fulham 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coventry's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Fulham's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Coventry 1.90 PPG, Fulham 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Coventry win broke the near-deadlock. Coventry (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Fulham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.