Coventry 1-2 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Coventry at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Coventry face Derby.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Coventry host Derby at The Coventry Building Society Arena in Championship (matchday 14). Kick-off is Wednesday 6 November 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Coventry — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Coventry at home: 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Derby stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Derby away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Coventry at 1.10 PPG versus Derby's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Coventry's games and 60% of Derby's (from Coventry's last 10 home games and Derby's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Coventry have won 0, Derby 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 19 Mar 2022, ended Coventry 1–1 Derby — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Coventry trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Derby trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Coventry 61% versus Derby 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Coventry 61% | Derby 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Coventry 1.86 xG and Derby 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Coventry attack 1.166 / defence 1.321 | Derby attack 0.860 / defence 1.181. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 0.998. Coventry's defence rating of 1.321 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Derby's projected output up. Data: built from Coventry's last 59 games and Derby's last 13.
Result probabilities: Coventry 53% | Draw 25% | Derby 22%. Fair-value odds: Coventry 1.88 | Draw 3.99 | Derby 4.59. Coventry hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Coventry as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Coventry offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Coventry's last 10 home games and Derby's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Coventry 80% (last 10 home games) | Derby 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Coventry vs Derby | Competition: Championship, matchday 14 | Venue: The Coventry Building Society Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 6 November 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Coventry 53% | Draw 25% | Derby 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Coventry 1.86 / Derby 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Coventry attack 1.166 / def 1.321 | Derby attack 0.860 / def 1.181 | league avg home 1.351 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Coventry (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Coventry xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Derby xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Coventry vs Derby FAQs
What time does Coventry vs Derby kick off?
Coventry vs Derby kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Wednesday 6 November 2024 at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What was the final score in Coventry vs Derby?
Coventry 1 - 2 Derby.
Where is Coventry vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at The Coventry Building Society Arena.
What competition is Coventry vs Derby part of?
Coventry vs Derby is a Championship fixture (matchday 14) (England).
Who is favourite to win Coventry vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Coventry a 53% chance of winning, Derby a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Coventry the favourite.
Will both teams score in Coventry vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Coventry and Derby will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Coventry vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Coventry's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Coventry's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Coventry's last 59 games and Derby's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Coventry Win
53%
1.88
25%
3.99
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Coventry xG
Total xG
2.99
1.13
Derby xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
3%
29.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.6 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Coventry vs Derby Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Coventry vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Coventry and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Coventry and 1.13 for Derby, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Coventry vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Coventry have picked up 1.34 PPG on a 21W 16D 22L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Derby's form line: 32W 11D 16L from 59 games, 1.81 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-L.
Put side by side, Derby are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Coventry.
Venue Form
On home soil, Coventry have posted 1.52 PPG from their last 29 home games (12W 8D 9L).
On the road, Derby have gone 12W 6D 11L from their last 29 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Coventry are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.59 scored and 0.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Coventry have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Derby in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Coventry
Blended
Derby
Blended
Coventry (Home) vs Derby (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Coventry
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Coventry vs Derby Form FAQs
What form are Coventry and Derby in coming into this match?
Coventry have gone 21W 16D 22L in their last 59 games (1.34 PPG), while Derby have gone 32W 11D 16L in their last 59 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Coventry at home or Derby away?
Coventry's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Coventry at home: 1.52 PPG; Derby away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Coventry or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Coventry have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Derby in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 3 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Coventry have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Coventry's record when hosting Derby specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Coventry
2
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Coventry vs Derby H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Coventry and Derby?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Coventry have won 2, Derby have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Coventry and Derby last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 April 2026: Coventry 3-2 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Coventry are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Coventry 59%, Derby 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Coventry) and 48% (Derby). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Coventry keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Derby in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Coventry home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Coventry vs Derby Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Coventry and Derby matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Coventry's recent matches and 48% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Coventry and Derby matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Coventry's matches and 48% of Derby's.
Do Coventry and Derby matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Coventry's recent matches and 69% of Derby's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Derby defy the odds to beat Coventry 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Coventry 1-2 at The Coventry Building Society Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Coventry 1.86 xG and Derby 1.13 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Coventry fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Derby outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Coventry attack 1.17 / defence 1.32 against Derby attack 0.86 / defence 1.18, drawn from 59/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Coventry 53% | Draw 25% | Derby 22%, with Coventry to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Derby win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Coventry 61%, Derby 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Coventry's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Derby's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.34. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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