Charlton 1-2 Middlesbrough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Middlesbrough at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Middlesbrough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charlton host Middlesbrough at The Valley in Championship, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 9 December 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Charlton — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton at The Valley this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Middlesbrough stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Middlesbrough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Middlesbrough have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Middlesbrough's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Charlton's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Charlton in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Middlesbrough in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 43% versus Middlesbrough 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 48% | Middlesbrough 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.10 xG and Middlesbrough 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.849 / defence 1.177 | Middlesbrough attack 1.057 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.223. Data: 18 Charlton games / 65 Middlesbrough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 27% | Draw 26% | Middlesbrough 47%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Middlesbrough 2.13. Middlesbrough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Middlesbrough are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Middlesbrough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Charlton 40% | Middlesbrough 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Middlesbrough | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 Dec 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 27% | Draw 26% | Middlesbrough 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Charlton 1.10 / Middlesbrough 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.849 / def 1.177 | Middlesbrough attack 1.057 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Middlesbrough (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Middlesbrough xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Middlesbrough kick off?
Charlton vs Middlesbrough kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 9 December 2025 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Middlesbrough?
Charlton 1 - 2 Middlesbrough.
Where is Charlton vs Middlesbrough being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Middlesbrough part of?
Charlton vs Middlesbrough is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Middlesbrough?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 27% chance of winning, Middlesbrough a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Middlesbrough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Middlesbrough?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Charlton and Middlesbrough will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Middlesbrough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Middlesbrough?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and Middlesbrough in?
Charlton (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Middlesbrough (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charlton's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Middlesbrough's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Middlesbrough's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Middlesbrough Win
27%
3.65
26%
3.87
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.62
1.52
Middlesbrough xG
3.65
27%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
6%
16.74
16%
6.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 11.0 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Middlesbrough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Charlton and Middlesbrough expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Charlton and 1.52 for Middlesbrough, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Middlesbrough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charlton come into this having played 65 games, going 31W 16D 18L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Middlesbrough sit at 1.54 PPG from 65 outings (28W 16D 21L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Middlesbrough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.68 PPG, Middlesbrough on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Charlton's home form reads 20W 8D 4L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.12 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.68 PPG overall — Charlton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Middlesbrough have taken 1.28 points per game from 32 outings (11W 8D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Middlesbrough are on 1.42 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Middlesbrough
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Middlesbrough in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 31W 16D 18L in their last 65 games (1.68 PPG), while Middlesbrough have gone 28W 16D 21L in their last 65 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Middlesbrough away?
Charlton's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 2.12 PPG; Middlesbrough away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Charlton or Middlesbrough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Middlesbrough in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Charlton
0
Draws
1
Middlesbrough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Middlesbrough?
From 2 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, Middlesbrough have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Middlesbrough last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Middlesbrough 0-1 Charlton.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 50%, Middlesbrough 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Charlton) and 53% (Middlesbrough).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Middlesbrough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Middlesbrough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Charlton's recent matches and 59% of Middlesbrough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Middlesbrough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Charlton's recent games and 53% of Middlesbrough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Middlesbrough tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Middlesbrough in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Middlesbrough edge out Charlton 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Middlesbrough beat Charlton 1-2 at The Valley, Regular Season - 20, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.10 xG and Middlesbrough 1.52 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.85 / defence 1.18 against Middlesbrough attack 1.06 / defence 0.94, drawn from 18/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 27% | Draw 26% | Middlesbrough 47%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 48%, Middlesbrough 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Middlesbrough's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.68 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Middlesbrough win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.