Charlton vs Burnley – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 32 as Charlton welcome Burnley to The Valley. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 16 February 2027 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Charlton have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 4W 2D 4L at The Valley — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burnley stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Burnley, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Burnley have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Charlton carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Charlton in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Burnley in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charlton 56% and Burnley 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 44% | Burnley 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.59 xG and Burnley 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.712 / defence 0.680 | Burnley attack 0.828 / defence 1.491. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.255. Charlton's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 1.59 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Burnley bring a strong defensive rating of 1.491 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Charlton's defence rating of 0.680 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 54 Charlton games / 8 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 57% | Draw 29% | Burnley 15%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.75 | Draw 3.45 | Burnley 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Charlton (57%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. This conflicts with form data: Charlton 50% | Burnley 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 Feb 2027, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 57% | Draw 29% | Burnley 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 42% | xG Charlton 1.59 / Burnley 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.712 / def 0.680 | Burnley attack 0.828 / def 1.491 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Charlton (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Burnley xG
42%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Burnley kick off?
Charlton vs Burnley is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Tuesday 16 February 2027 at The Valley.
Where is Charlton vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Burnley part of?
Charlton vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 57% chance of winning, Burnley a 15% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Charlton and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Burnley?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and Burnley in?
Charlton (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Burnley (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Charlton's attack at 0.71x the league average against Burnley's defence at 1.49x — combine the two and it projects 1.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.8%), 2-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
57%
1.76
29%
3.50
15%
6.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.30
0.71
Burnley xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
6.84
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
28%
3.57
3%
33.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 11.3 | 4.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Charlton and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Charlton and 0.71 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Burnley?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charlton's recent record stands at 13W 14D 19L from 46 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with D-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 4W 14D 28L across 46 games — 0.57 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Burnley is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Charlton by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burnley heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Charlton have managed 9W 5D 9L from 23 games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 2W 4D 17L across 23 trips, a 0.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.02 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Burnley in 65%.
Last 46 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Burnley in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 13W 14D 19L in their last 46 games (1.15 PPG), while Burnley have gone 4W 14D 28L in their last 46 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Burnley away?
Charlton's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.39 PPG; Burnley away: 0.43 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Charlton at 52%, Burnley at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Charlton) and 70% (Burnley). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 9% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Burnley?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Charlton's games and 78% of Burnley's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Charlton's matches and 70% of Burnley's.
Do Charlton and Burnley tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Burnley in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.