Cardiff 0-1 West Brom – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cardiff at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cardiff face West Brom.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

West Brom travel to Cardiff City Stadium to take on Cardiff in Championship (matchday 18). The game is scheduled for Tuesday 28 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time.

Form Guide

Cardiff — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home, Cardiff have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, West Brom have recorded 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

West Brom's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cardiff at 1.70 PPG versus West Brom's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Cardiff's games and 60% of West Brom's (from Cardiff's last 10 home games and West Brom's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Cardiff, 1 for West Brom and 3 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Mar 2023, ended Cardiff 1–1 West Brom — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Cardiff in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

West Brom in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 44% versus West Brom 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 40% | West Brom 41%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cardiff surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while West Brom have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.43 xG and West Brom 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 1.105 / defence 1.045 | West Brom attack 1.111 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.217. Data: built from Cardiff's last 63 games and West Brom's last 63.

Result probabilities: Cardiff 38% | Draw 25% | West Brom 37%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.65 | Draw 3.97 | West Brom 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Cardiff are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cardiff offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cardiff's last 10 home games and West Brom's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cardiff 70% (last 10 home games) | West Brom 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights