Cardiff vs Swansea – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Swansea (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cardiff face Swansea.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 37 as Cardiff welcome Swansea to Cardiff City Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 March 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Cardiff are significantly better at Cardiff City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Championship matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Swansea's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Cardiff's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cardiff register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Swansea in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Swansea have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 2 for Cardiff.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2025, ended 3–0 with Cardiff winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Swansea have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Cardiff trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Swansea trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 60% versus Swansea 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 56% | Swansea 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.56 xG and Swansea 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 1.273 / defence 1.108 | Swansea attack 1.082 / defence 0.846. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.305. Cardiff carry an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — their λ of 1.56 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 11 Cardiff games / 57 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 38% | Draw 24% | Swansea 38%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Swansea 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 60% | Swansea 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 38% | Draw 24% | Swansea 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Cardiff 1.56 / Swansea 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 1.273 / def 1.108 | Swansea attack 1.082 / def 0.846 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Swansea xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Swansea kick off?
Cardiff vs Swansea is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Cardiff City Stadium.
Where is Cardiff vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Swansea part of?
Cardiff vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 38% chance of winning, Swansea a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cardiff and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Swansea?
Record (8 meetings): Cardiff 2W | Draws 1 | Swansea 5W.
What form are Cardiff and Swansea in?
Cardiff (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Swansea (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cardiff's attack at 1.27x the league average against Swansea's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Swansea's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
38%
2.63
24%
4.21
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Cardiff xG
Total xG
3.12
1.56
Swansea xG
2.63
38%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
8%
12.60
8%
12.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.7 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.56 for Swansea, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cardiff come into this having played 57 games, going 29W 15D 13L for 1.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Swansea sit at 1.53 PPG from 57 outings (25W 12D 20L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cardiff on 1.79 PPG, Swansea on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cardiff's home form reads 19W 5D 4L across 28 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Cardiff are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Swansea have taken 1.32 points per game from 28 outings (11W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cardiff come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Cardiff are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.28 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
Swansea
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Swansea in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 29W 15D 13L in their last 57 games (1.79 PPG), while Swansea have gone 25W 12D 20L in their last 57 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Swansea away?
Cardiff's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 2.21 PPG; Swansea away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cardiff and Swansea runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Apr 2022, when Swansea won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cardiff's record when hosting Swansea specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cardiff
1
Draws
5
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Swansea?
From 8 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 2, Swansea have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Cardiff 3-0 Swansea.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Swansea?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 57%, Swansea 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Cardiff) and 54% (Swansea). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 11% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Swansea in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Swansea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Cardiff's recent matches and 50% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Cardiff's matches and 54% of Swansea's.
Do Cardiff and Swansea tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Swansea in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.