Cardiff 0-2 Preston – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cardiff at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cardiff vs Preston fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cardiff City Stadium plays host to Cardiff versus Preston in Championship, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cardiff have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Cardiff's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Cardiff City Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Preston's overall Championship record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Preston's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Cardiff against 1.30 for Preston. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cardiff lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 2–1 with Cardiff winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Cardiff half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Preston half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 43% versus Preston 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 41% | Preston 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.29 xG and Preston 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.821 / defence 1.151 | Preston attack 0.871 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.197. Data: 75 Cardiff games / 76 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 39% | Draw 27% | Preston 34%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Preston 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cardiff as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cardiff if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Cardiff 30% | Preston 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 39% | Draw 27% | Preston 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Cardiff 1.29 / Preston 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.821 / def 1.151 | Preston attack 0.871 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Preston xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Preston kick off?
Cardiff vs Preston kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Preston?
Cardiff 0 - 2 Preston.
Where is Cardiff vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Preston part of?
Cardiff vs Preston is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 39% chance of winning, Preston a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Cardiff and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Preston?
Record (5 meetings): Cardiff 2W | Draws 2 | Preston 1W.
What form are Cardiff and Preston in?
Cardiff (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Preston (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cardiff's attack rating (0.82) and Preston's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Preston's attack (0.87x) against Cardiff's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 75/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
39%
2.59
27%
3.68
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.49
1.20
Preston xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
12%
8.60
9%
10.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.20 for Preston, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cardiff come into this having played 75 games, going 25W 14D 36L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Preston sit at 1.39 PPG from 75 outings (29W 17D 29L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Cardiff against 1.39 for Preston. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Cardiff's home form reads 12W 9D 16L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Preston have taken 1.35 points per game from 37 outings (14W 8D 15L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cardiff are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.11 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Current Season
Preston
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Preston in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 25W 14D 36L in their last 75 games (1.19 PPG), while Preston have gone 29W 17D 29L in their last 75 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Preston away?
Preston's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.22 PPG; Preston away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cardiff have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Preston — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cardiff
3
Draws
3
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Preston?
From 8 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 2, Preston have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2025, when Preston 2-2 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Preston?
Preston have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cardiff see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches.
Preston see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 46%, Preston 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Cardiff) and 49% (Preston).
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Preston in 32%; Cardiff have failed to score in 27% of games; Preston in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Preston?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cardiff's recent matches and 46% of Preston's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Cardiff's recent games and 49% of Preston's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Preston cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Preston beat Cardiff 0-2 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.29 xG and Preston 1.20 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cardiff fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Preston outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.82 / defence 1.15 against Preston attack 0.87 / defence 1.12, drawn from 75/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 39% | Draw 27% | Preston 34%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Preston win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 41%, Preston 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Preston's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.19 PPG, Preston 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Preston win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Preston (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.