Cardiff 4-0 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cardiff at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cardiff vs Peterborough encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cardiff host Peterborough at Cardiff City Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 9 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Cardiff — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff have gone 2W 0D 8L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Cardiff City Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Peterborough stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Championship matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Peterborough's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Cardiff are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Cardiff's 30% rate and Peterborough's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cardiff have won 0, Peterborough 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Cardiff in-play and half-time data (27 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Peterborough in-play and half-time data (27 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 52% versus Peterborough 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 59% | Peterborough 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.62 xG and Peterborough 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.799 / defence 1.353 | Peterborough attack 0.643 / defence 1.918. League average goals — home 1.057 / away 1.112. Cardiff's attack strength of 0.799 is below the league average — the 1.62 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Peterborough bring a strong defensive rating of 1.918 — this is suppressing Cardiff's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Cardiff games / 27 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 53% | Draw 25% | Peterborough 23%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Peterborough 4.35. Cardiff hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cardiff at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cardiff offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 30% | Peterborough 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Peterborough | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 53% | Draw 25% | Peterborough 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Cardiff 1.62 / Peterborough 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.799 / def 1.353 | Peterborough attack 0.643 / def 1.918 | league avg home 1.057 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Peterborough xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Peterborough kick off?
Cardiff vs Peterborough kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 9 February 2022 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Peterborough?
Cardiff 4 - 0 Peterborough.
Where is Cardiff vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Peterborough part of?
Cardiff vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 53% chance of winning, Peterborough a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cardiff and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Peterborough?
Record (1 meetings): Cardiff 0W | Draws 1 | Peterborough 0W.
What form are Cardiff and Peterborough in?
Cardiff (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Peterborough (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cardiff's attack at 0.80x the league average against Peterborough's defence at 1.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
53%
1.90
25%
4.03
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.59
0.97
Peterborough xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
4%
22.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.8 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Cardiff and 0.97 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cardiff come into this having played 27 games, going 8W 4D 15L for 1.04 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Peterborough sit at 0.74 PPG from 27 outings (5W 5D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cardiff on 1.04 PPG, Peterborough on 0.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cardiff's home form reads 3W 0D 9L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Peterborough have taken 0.33 points per game from 12 outings (1W 1D 10L). That's a step down from their 0.74 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Peterborough's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cardiff come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cardiff are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 0.85 scored and 2.04 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 8W 4D 15L in their last 27 games (1.04 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 5W 5D 17L in their last 27 (0.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Peterborough away?
Cardiff's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 0.75 PPG; Peterborough away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Championship, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2022, when Cardiff won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cardiff's record when hosting Peterborough specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cardiff
2
Draws
0
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Peterborough?
From 4 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 2, Peterborough have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Peterborough 1-1 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Peterborough?
Cardiff have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Peterborough see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 42%, Peterborough 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Cardiff and 75% for Peterborough. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cardiff have failed to score in 58% of games; Peterborough in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Cardiff's recent matches and 42% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Cardiff's matches and 75% of Peterborough's.
Do Cardiff and Peterborough tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cardiff run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Peterborough.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff beat Peterborough 4-0 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.62 xG and Peterborough 0.97 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Cardiff beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Peterborough landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.80 / defence 1.35 against Peterborough attack 0.64 / defence 1.92, drawn from 28/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 53% | Draw 25% | Peterborough 23%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 59%, Peterborough 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (27 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Peterborough's trading profile (27 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 52% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.04 PPG, Peterborough 0.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cardiff win broke the near-deadlock. Cardiff (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. Peterborough (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.