Cardiff 0-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Cardiff take on Hull City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Hull City travel to Cardiff City Stadium to take on Cardiff. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 24 November 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for Cardiff, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cardiff's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 6L across 9 games at Cardiff City Stadium this term (0.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hull City stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Championship matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hull City's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 6L across 9 road games this term (0.78 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 11% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Cardiff) versus 1.00 (Hull City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Cardiff trading profile (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Hull City trading profile (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 11% of games (away games); they fail to score in 61% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 50% versus Hull City 22%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cardiff 56% | Hull City 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 0.77 xG and Hull City 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.684 / defence 1.414 | Hull City attack 0.629 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.057 / away 1.091. Cardiff's attack strength of 0.684 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 18 Cardiff games / 18 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 26% | Draw 37% | Hull City 37%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 3.85 | Draw 2.70 | Hull City 2.70. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.74. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.74 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Cardiff's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.74 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 25% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cardiff 44% | Hull City 11% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 26% | Draw 37% | Hull City 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 35% | xG Cardiff 0.77 / Hull City 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.684 / def 1.414 | Hull City attack 0.629 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.057 / away 1.091 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Hull City xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Hull City kick off?
Cardiff vs Hull City kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 24 November 2021 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Hull City?
Cardiff 0 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Cardiff vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Hull City part of?
Cardiff vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 26% chance of winning, Hull City a 37% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Cardiff and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Hull City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cardiff and Hull City in?
Cardiff (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Hull City (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cardiff's attack rating (0.68) and Hull City's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hull City's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.86
37%
2.69
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Cardiff xG
Total xG
1.74
0.97
Hull City xG
3.86
26%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
10%
10.20
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 17.0 | 8.2 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Cardiff and 0.97 for Hull City, a combined total of 1.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cardiff come into this having played 18 games, going 5W 3D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Cardiff is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 0.83 PPG from 18 outings (4W 3D 11L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cardiff on 1.00 PPG, Hull City on 0.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cardiff's home form reads 2W 1D 6L across 9 games on their own ground, a 0.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 0.78 points per game from 9 outings (2W 1D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Cardiff are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 0.72 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City in 22%.
Last 18 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Hull City in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 5W 3D 10L in their last 18 games (1.00 PPG), while Hull City have gone 4W 3D 11L in their last 18 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Hull City away?
Cardiff's home record (0.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 0.78 PPG; Hull City away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cardiff and Hull City runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Dec 2023, when Hull City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cardiff's record when hosting Hull City specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cardiff
0
Draws
7
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Hull City?
From 8 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 1, Hull City have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2025, when Cardiff 1-0 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and Hull City?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Cardiff 44% BTTS, Hull City 11%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Cardiff and 11% for Hull City.
On the defensive side: Cardiff have failed to score in 56% of games; Hull City in 78%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cardiff's recent matches and 11% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Cardiff's recent games and 11% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Hull City tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hull City in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hull City edge out Cardiff 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Cardiff 0-1 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 0.77 xG and Hull City 0.97 xG, a combined 1.74. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.68 / defence 1.41 against Hull City attack 0.63 / defence 1.07, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 26% | Draw 37% | Hull City 37%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 56%, Hull City 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hull City's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.00 PPG, Hull City 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.