Burnley 3-0 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burnley at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burnley vs Wigan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Wigan travel to Turf Moor to take on Burnley. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 March 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Burnley — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Burnley's home record at Turf Moor: 9W 1D 0L from 10 Championship appearances (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Turf Moor.
Across all Championship games this season, Wigan have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Championship this season, Wigan have posted 0W 5D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Burnley have the edge — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Burnley, 0 for Wigan and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 5–1 with Burnley winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Burnley in-play tendencies (73 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Wigan in-play tendencies (73 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 51% versus Wigan 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burnley 42% | Wigan 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 2.03 xG and Wigan 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 1.422 / defence 0.787 | Wigan attack 0.816 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.078. Burnley carry an above-average attack strength of 1.422 — their λ of 2.03 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Burnley's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Burnley games / 35 Wigan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 68% | Draw 20% | Wigan 11%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Wigan 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Burnley (68%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Burnley as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Burnley 50% | Wigan 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Wigan | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 68% | Draw 20% | Wigan 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 44% | xG Burnley 2.03 / Wigan 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 1.422 / def 0.787 | Wigan attack 0.816 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Burnley (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Wigan xG
44%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Wigan kick off?
Burnley vs Wigan kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Wigan?
Burnley 3 - 0 Wigan.
Where is Burnley vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Wigan part of?
Burnley vs Wigan is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 68% chance of winning, Wigan a 11% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Burnley and Wigan will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Wigan?
Record (1 meetings): Burnley 1W | Draws 0 | Wigan 0W.
What form are Burnley and Wigan in?
Burnley (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Wigan (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Burnley's attacking strength (1.42x league average) is weighed against Wigan's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus Burnley's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
68%
1.46
20%
4.97
11%
8.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.72
0.69
Wigan xG
1.46
68%
Home win
4.97
20%
Draw
8.73
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
13%
7.58
Win to Nil
34%
2.92
2%
66.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 9.3 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Burnley and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Burnley and 0.69 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Wigan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 73 outings, Burnley have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 29W 25D 19L record — D-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Wigan's form line: 28W 21D 24L from 73 games, 1.44 PPG, last five D-D-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burnley on 1.53 PPG, Wigan on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Burnley have posted 1.76 PPG from 37 outings (18W 11D 8L).
On the road, Wigan have gone 16W 12D 9L from 37 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Burnley are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.36 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wigan in 63%.
Last 73 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Current Season
Wigan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Wigan in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 29W 25D 19L in their last 73 games (1.53 PPG), while Wigan have gone 28W 21D 24L in their last 73 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Wigan away?
Burnley's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.76 PPG; Wigan away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Burnley or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burnley have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Wigan in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Burnley and Wigan runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Burnley
0
Draws
0
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Wigan?
From 2 meetings on record, Burnley have won 2, Wigan have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Wigan last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2023, when Burnley 3-0 Wigan.
Who has won more matches between Burnley and Wigan?
Burnley have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 49%, Wigan 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Burnley) and 54% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Burnley keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Wigan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 49% of Burnley's games and 65% of Wigan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burnley vs Wigan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Burnley's recent games and 54% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Wigan tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Wigan in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Burnley run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Wigan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley beat Wigan 3-0 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 36, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 2.03 xG and Wigan 0.69 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 1.42 / defence 0.79 against Wigan attack 0.82 / defence 1.13, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 68% | Draw 20% | Wigan 11%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 42%, Wigan 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (73 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wigan's trading profile (73 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burnley 1.53 PPG, Wigan 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burnley win broke the near-deadlock. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.