Burnley 3-3 Blackpool – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Burnley at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burnley vs Blackpool fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Blackpool make the trip to Turf Moor to face Burnley in Championship, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Burnley (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Burnley have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Burnley's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Turf Moor this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Blackpool's overall Championship record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Blackpool have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Blackpool away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Burnley against 1.30 for Blackpool. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Burnley — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Blackpool — key trading statistics (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burnley 48% versus Blackpool 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Burnley 33% | Blackpool 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burnley 1.07 xG and Blackpool 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burnley attack 0.833 / defence 1.163 | Blackpool attack 0.885 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.337 / away 0.956. Data: 4 Burnley games / 50 Blackpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burnley 37% | Draw 31% | Blackpool 32%. Fair-value odds: Burnley 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Blackpool 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Burnley are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burnley if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Burnley 50% | Blackpool 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burnley vs Blackpool | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Turf Moor • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burnley 37% | Draw 31% | Blackpool 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Burnley 1.07 / Blackpool 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Burnley attack 0.833 / def 1.163 | Blackpool attack 0.885 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.337 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: Burnley (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Burnley xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Blackpool xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burnley vs Blackpool kick off?
Burnley vs Blackpool kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Turf Moor.
What was the final score in Burnley vs Blackpool?
Burnley 3 - 3 Blackpool.
Where is Burnley vs Blackpool being played?
The match is being played at Turf Moor.
What competition is Burnley vs Blackpool part of?
Burnley vs Blackpool is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Burnley vs Blackpool?
Our statistical model gives Burnley a 37% chance of winning, Blackpool a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Burnley the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Blackpool?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Burnley and Blackpool will score (BTTS).
Will Burnley vs Blackpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Blackpool?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burnley and Blackpool in?
Burnley (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Blackpool (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Burnley's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Blackpool's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Blackpool's attack (0.89x) against Burnley's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 4/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burnley Win
37%
2.73
31%
3.19
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Burnley xG
Total xG
2.06
0.98
Blackpool xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
11%
9.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burnley vs Blackpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Burnley and Blackpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Burnley and 0.98 for Blackpool, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Burnley vs Blackpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burnley come into this having played 42 games, going 8W 16D 18L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Burnley, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Blackpool sit at 1.38 PPG from 42 outings (16W 10D 16L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Blackpool, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Blackpool carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Burnley — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Burnley's home form reads 5W 8D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Blackpool have taken 1.05 points per game from 21 outings (5W 7D 9L).
Attack vs Defence
Burnley are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Blackpool are on 1.17 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burnley
Early Season
Blackpool
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burnley and Blackpool in coming into this match?
Burnley have gone 8W 16D 18L in their last 42 games (0.95 PPG), while Blackpool have gone 16W 10D 16L in their last 42 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burnley at home or Blackpool away?
Burnley's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burnley at home: 1.10 PPG; Blackpool away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Burnley
2
Draws
0
Blackpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burnley and Blackpool?
From 2 meetings on record, Burnley have won 0, Blackpool have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burnley and Blackpool last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Blackpool 0-0 Burnley.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Blackpool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burnley 48%, Blackpool 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Burnley and 29% for Blackpool.
On the defensive side: Burnley have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burnley home games / Blackpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burnley play Blackpool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Burnley's recent matches and 57% of Blackpool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burnley vs Blackpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Burnley's recent games and 29% of Blackpool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burnley and Blackpool tend to score early?
Burnley have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Blackpool in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burnley and Blackpool share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burnley and Blackpool finished level at 3-3 at Turf Moor, Regular Season - 5, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burnley 1.07 xG and Blackpool 0.98 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Burnley beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Blackpool outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burnley attack 0.83 / defence 1.16 against Blackpool attack 0.89 / defence 0.96, drawn from 4/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burnley 37% | Draw 31% | Blackpool 32%, with Burnley to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burnley 33%, Blackpool 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burnley's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Blackpool's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Blackpool arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Burnley (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Blackpool (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.