Bournemouth 0-0 Middlesbrough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bournemouth vs Middlesbrough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bournemouth host Middlesbrough at Vitality Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 42. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 15 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bournemouth — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bournemouth have posted 5W 3D 2L at Vitality Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Middlesbrough stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Championship matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Championship this season, Middlesbrough have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, Bournemouth have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Bournemouth, 1 for Middlesbrough and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Middlesbrough winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Bournemouth in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Middlesbrough in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 49% versus Middlesbrough 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 51% | Middlesbrough 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.51 xG and Middlesbrough 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 1.173 / defence 1.163 | Middlesbrough attack 1.057 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.040 / away 1.095. Middlesbrough bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Bournemouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Bournemouth games / 40 Middlesbrough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 41% | Draw 25% | Middlesbrough 34%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Middlesbrough 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bournemouth at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bournemouth 60% | Middlesbrough 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Middlesbrough | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 15 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 41% | Draw 25% | Middlesbrough 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Bournemouth 1.51 / Middlesbrough 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 1.173 / def 1.163 | Middlesbrough attack 1.057 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.040 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Middlesbrough xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Middlesbrough kick off?
Bournemouth vs Middlesbrough kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 15 April 2022 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Middlesbrough?
Bournemouth 0 - 0 Middlesbrough.
Where is Bournemouth vs Middlesbrough being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Middlesbrough part of?
Bournemouth vs Middlesbrough is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Middlesbrough?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 41% chance of winning, Middlesbrough a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Middlesbrough?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Bournemouth and Middlesbrough will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Middlesbrough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Middlesbrough?
Record (1 meetings): Bournemouth 0W | Draws 0 | Middlesbrough 1W.
What form are Bournemouth and Middlesbrough in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Middlesbrough (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bournemouth's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Middlesbrough's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, Middlesbrough's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
41%
2.43
25%
4.01
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.85
1.34
Middlesbrough xG
2.43
41%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
11%
9.31
7%
13.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Middlesbrough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Middlesbrough expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.34 for Middlesbrough, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Middlesbrough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bournemouth come into this having played 39 games, going 21W 10D 8L for 1.87 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, Middlesbrough sit at 1.56 PPG from 39 outings (18W 7D 14L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bournemouth on 1.87 PPG, Middlesbrough on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bournemouth's home form reads 11W 5D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Middlesbrough have taken 1.21 points per game from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bournemouth are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Middlesbrough are on 1.31 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Middlesbrough in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Current Season
Middlesbrough
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Middlesbrough in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 21W 10D 8L in their last 39 games (1.87 PPG), while Middlesbrough have gone 18W 7D 14L in their last 39 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Middlesbrough away?
Bournemouth's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 2.00 PPG; Middlesbrough away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or Middlesbrough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Middlesbrough in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bournemouth
1
Draws
1
Middlesbrough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Middlesbrough?
From 2 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 0, Middlesbrough have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Middlesbrough last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2022, when Bournemouth 0-0 Middlesbrough.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Middlesbrough?
Middlesbrough have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Middlesbrough see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 63%, Middlesbrough 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (Bournemouth) and 42% (Middlesbrough). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Middlesbrough in 37%; Middlesbrough in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Middlesbrough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Middlesbrough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 42% of Middlesbrough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bournemouth vs Middlesbrough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Bournemouth's matches and 42% of Middlesbrough's.
Do Bournemouth and Middlesbrough tend to score early?
Bournemouth have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Middlesbrough in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bournemouth's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth and Middlesbrough finished level at 0-0 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.51 xG and Middlesbrough 1.34 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bournemouth fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Middlesbrough landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.17 / defence 1.16 against Middlesbrough attack 1.06 / defence 1.24, drawn from 39/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 41% | Draw 25% | Middlesbrough 34%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 51%, Middlesbrough 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Middlesbrough's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bournemouth 1.87 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bournemouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.