Bournemouth 3-1 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bournemouth vs Birmingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 31 as Bournemouth welcome Birmingham to Vitality Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 9 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bournemouth stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bournemouth have posted 6W 1D 3L at Vitality Stadium — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bournemouth are significantly better at Vitality Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Championship games this season, Birmingham have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Championship this season, Birmingham have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Bournemouth are in the better shape of the two on current Championship data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bournemouth, 0 for Birmingham and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2021, ended 2–0 with Bournemouth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bournemouth trading profile (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Birmingham trading profile (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 43% versus Birmingham 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 50% | Birmingham 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.99 xG and Birmingham 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 1.187 / defence 1.146 | Birmingham attack 0.854 / defence 1.583. League average goals — home 1.057 / away 1.112. Birmingham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.583 — this is suppressing Bournemouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Bournemouth games / 30 Birmingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 58% | Draw 21% | Birmingham 20%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | Birmingham 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Bournemouth (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bournemouth are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Bournemouth 50% | Birmingham 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Birmingham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 9 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 58% | Draw 21% | Birmingham 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Bournemouth 1.99 / Birmingham 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 1.187 / def 1.146 | Birmingham attack 0.854 / def 1.583 | league avg home 1.057 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Birmingham xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bournemouth vs Birmingham kick off?
Bournemouth vs Birmingham kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 9 February 2022 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Birmingham?
Bournemouth 3 - 1 Birmingham.
Where is Bournemouth vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Birmingham part of?
Bournemouth vs Birmingham is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 58% chance of winning, Birmingham a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Bournemouth and Birmingham will score (BTTS).
Will Bournemouth vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Birmingham?
Record (1 meetings): Bournemouth 1W | Draws 0 | Birmingham 0W.
What form are Bournemouth and Birmingham in?
Bournemouth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Birmingham (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bournemouth's attack rating (1.19) and Birmingham's defence rating (1.58), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Birmingham's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
58%
1.72
21%
4.66
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
3.08
1.09
Birmingham xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
14%
7.30
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
3%
35.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.09 for Birmingham, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Birmingham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bournemouth's recent record stands at 15W 7D 6L from 28 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Birmingham, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 13L across 28 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bournemouth by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Birmingham heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bournemouth have managed 7W 3D 3L from 13 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Birmingham's away record stands at 1W 5D 7L across 13 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Birmingham's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bournemouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bournemouth are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.14 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Defensively: Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Current Season
Birmingham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bournemouth and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 15W 7D 6L in their last 28 games (1.86 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 7W 8D 13L in their last 28 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Birmingham away?
Bournemouth's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 1.85 PPG; Birmingham away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or Birmingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Birmingham in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Bournemouth
0
Draws
0
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Birmingham?
From 2 meetings on record, Bournemouth have won 2, Birmingham have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Birmingham last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2022, when Bournemouth 3-1 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Birmingham?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 54%, Birmingham 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for Bournemouth and 38% for Birmingham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bournemouth keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Birmingham in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bournemouth play Birmingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 38% of Birmingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bournemouth vs Birmingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of Bournemouth's matches and 38% of Birmingham's.
Do Bournemouth and Birmingham tend to score early?
Bournemouth have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Birmingham in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bournemouth cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Birmingham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Birmingham 3-1 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.99 xG and Birmingham 1.09 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bournemouth beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 1.19 / defence 1.15 against Birmingham attack 0.85 / defence 1.58, drawn from 28/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 58% | Draw 21% | Birmingham 20%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 50%, Birmingham 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Birmingham's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bournemouth arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.04. That form edge translated into the three points. Bournemouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Birmingham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.