Blackburn 1-0 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Blackburn at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Blackburn vs Swansea fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Swansea travel to Ewood Park to take on Blackburn. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 February 2023, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Blackburn stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Blackburn's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Ewood Park this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ewood Park. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Blackburn are significantly better at Ewood Park than their overall form suggests.
Swansea — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Swansea have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Blackburn) versus 1.10 (Swansea). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Blackburn, 1 for Swansea and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2022, ended 3–0 with Blackburn winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Blackburn trading profile (77 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Swansea trading profile (77 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackburn 40% versus Swansea 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackburn 44% | Swansea 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackburn 1.44 xG and Swansea 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackburn attack 0.935 / defence 0.925 | Swansea attack 1.049 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.250 / away 1.136. Swansea bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Blackburn's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 77 Blackburn games / 77 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Blackburn 44% | Draw 27% | Swansea 28%. Fair-value odds: Blackburn 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Swansea 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Blackburn as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Blackburn offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Blackburn 40% | Swansea 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackburn vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Ewood Park • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackburn 44% | Draw 27% | Swansea 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Blackburn 1.44 / Swansea 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Blackburn attack 0.935 / def 0.925 | Swansea attack 1.049 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.250 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Blackburn (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Blackburn xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Swansea xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Blackburn vs Swansea kick off?
Blackburn vs Swansea kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Ewood Park.
What was the final score in Blackburn vs Swansea?
Blackburn 1 - 0 Swansea.
Where is Blackburn vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at Ewood Park.
What competition is Blackburn vs Swansea part of?
Blackburn vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackburn vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Blackburn a 44% chance of winning, Swansea a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Blackburn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Blackburn and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Blackburn vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Swansea?
Record (3 meetings): Blackburn 2W | Draws 0 | Swansea 1W.
What form are Blackburn and Swansea in?
Blackburn (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-D-D. Swansea (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Blackburn's attack at 0.94x the league average against Swansea's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Swansea's attack versus Blackburn's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 77/77 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Blackburn Win
44%
2.27
27%
3.64
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Blackburn xG
Total xG
2.54
1.10
Swansea xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
15%
6.82
7%
14.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.5 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackburn vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Blackburn and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Blackburn and 1.10 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackburn vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Blackburn's recent record stands at 33W 16D 28L from 77 games, a 1.49 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-D in the last five.
Swansea, meanwhile, have gone 27W 22D 28L across 77 games — 1.34 PPG, with W-D-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Blackburn on 1.49 PPG, Swansea on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Blackburn have managed 21W 6D 10L from 37 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Swansea's away record stands at 10W 12D 15L across 37 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Blackburn come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Blackburn are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.34 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 77 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackburn
Current Season
Swansea
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Blackburn and Swansea in coming into this match?
Blackburn have gone 33W 16D 28L in their last 77 games (1.49 PPG), while Swansea have gone 27W 22D 28L in their last 77 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackburn at home or Swansea away?
Blackburn's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackburn at home: 1.86 PPG; Swansea away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Blackburn or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Blackburn have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Swansea in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Blackburn and Swansea runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 20 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Swansea have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Blackburn won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Blackburn's record when hosting Swansea specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Blackburn
0
Draws
6
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and Swansea?
From 10 meetings on record, Blackburn have won 4, Swansea have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Blackburn and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2026, when Swansea 3-1 Blackburn.
Who has won more matches between Blackburn and Swansea?
Swansea have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackburn 40%, Swansea 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Blackburn) and 57% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Blackburn keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Swansea in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackburn home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Blackburn play Swansea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Blackburn's recent matches and 54% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Blackburn vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Blackburn's recent games and 57% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Blackburn and Swansea tend to score early?
Blackburn have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Swansea in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Blackburn edge out Swansea 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Blackburn beat Swansea 1-0 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.44 xG and Swansea 1.10 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Swansea landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.94 / defence 0.93 against Swansea attack 1.05 / defence 1.23, drawn from 77/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackburn 44% | Draw 27% | Swansea 28%, with Blackburn to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 44%, Swansea 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackburn's trading profile (77 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Swansea's trading profile (77 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.49 PPG, Swansea 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Blackburn win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.