Blackburn 0-1 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates QPR at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Blackburn vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 17 as Blackburn welcome QPR to Ewood Park. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 26 November 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Blackburn — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Blackburn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackburn at Ewood Park this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, QPR have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Blackburn at 1.30 PPG versus QPR's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Blackburn register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, QPR in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Blackburn hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 7 previous encounters compared to 2 for QPR, with 0 draws in between.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2025, ended 1–2 with QPR winning.
The historical record gives Blackburn a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Blackburn in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
QPR in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Blackburn 41% versus QPR 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Blackburn 43% | QPR 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Blackburn 1.17 xG and QPR 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Blackburn attack 0.903 / defence 1.262 | QPR attack 0.866 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.218. Data: 61 Blackburn games / 62 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Blackburn 32% | Draw 28% | QPR 40%. Fair-value odds: Blackburn 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | QPR 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, QPR are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Blackburn 90% | QPR 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Blackburn vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Ewood Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Nov 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Blackburn 32% | Draw 28% | QPR 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Blackburn 1.17 / QPR 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Blackburn attack 0.903 / def 1.262 | QPR attack 0.866 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.218 • Poisson stance: QPR (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Blackburn xG
Expected Goals
1.33
QPR xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Blackburn vs QPR kick off?
Blackburn vs QPR kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 26 November 2025 at Ewood Park.
What was the final score in Blackburn vs QPR?
Blackburn 0 - 1 QPR.
Where is Blackburn vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at Ewood Park.
What competition is Blackburn vs QPR part of?
Blackburn vs QPR is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Blackburn vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Blackburn a 32% chance of winning, QPR a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Blackburn vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Blackburn and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Blackburn vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and QPR?
Record (7 meetings): Blackburn 5W | Draws 0 | QPR 2W.
What form are Blackburn and QPR in?
Blackburn (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. QPR (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Blackburn's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Blackburn's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
32%
3.08
28%
3.62
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Blackburn xG
Total xG
2.50
1.33
QPR xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
9%
11.66
12%
8.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.9 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Blackburn vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Blackburn and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Blackburn and 1.33 for QPR, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Blackburn vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Blackburn come into this having played 61 games, going 25W 10D 26L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Blackburn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, QPR sit at 1.28 PPG from 61 outings (20W 18D 23L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Blackburn on 1.39 PPG, QPR on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Blackburn's home form reads 13W 5D 12L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, QPR have taken 1.23 points per game from 30 outings (10W 7D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Blackburn are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.18 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR in 62%.
Last 61 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Blackburn
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Blackburn and QPR in coming into this match?
Blackburn have gone 25W 10D 26L in their last 61 games (1.39 PPG), while QPR have gone 20W 18D 23L in their last 61 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Blackburn at home or QPR away?
Blackburn's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Blackburn at home: 1.47 PPG; QPR away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Blackburn or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Blackburn have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, QPR in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Blackburn and QPR runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2023, when Blackburn won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Blackburn's record when hosting QPR specifically: 3W 0D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Blackburn
0
Draws
4
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Blackburn and QPR?
From 10 meetings on record, Blackburn have won 6, QPR have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Blackburn and QPR last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Blackburn 1-2 QPR.
Who has won more matches between Blackburn and QPR?
Blackburn have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Blackburn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Blackburn 50%, QPR 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Blackburn) and 43% (QPR).
On the defensive side: Blackburn have failed to score in 27% of games; QPR in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Blackburn home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Blackburn play QPR?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Blackburn's recent matches and 53% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Blackburn vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Blackburn's recent games and 43% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Blackburn and QPR tend to score early?
Blackburn have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, QPR in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as QPR edge out Blackburn 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Blackburn 0-1 at Ewood Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Blackburn 1.17 xG and QPR 1.33 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Blackburn fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Blackburn attack 0.90 / defence 1.26 against QPR attack 0.87 / defence 1.00, drawn from 61/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Blackburn 32% | Draw 28% | QPR 40%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Blackburn 43%, QPR 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Blackburn's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
QPR's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Blackburn 1.39 PPG, QPR 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. Blackburn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. QPR (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.