Birmingham 2-1 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Swansea at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Birmingham vs Swansea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Swansea make the trip to St Andrew's Stadium to face Birmingham in Championship, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 23 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Birmingham (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Birmingham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Birmingham's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 3L across 6 games at St Andrew's Stadium this term (0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at St Andrew's Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 17% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Swansea have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Swansea have posted 1W 2D 3L from 6 away outings — 0.83 PPG. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.83 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Swansea are 0.70 PPG clear of Birmingham in recent Championship fixtures (1.60 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Birmingham half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 62% of games.
Swansea half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Birmingham 15% | Swansea 46%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Birmingham 31% | Swansea 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Birmingham 0.98 xG and Swansea 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Birmingham attack 0.676 / defence 1.330 | Swansea attack 0.891 / defence 1.379. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.126. Birmingham's attack strength of 0.676 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Swansea bring a strong defensive rating of 1.379 — this is suppressing Birmingham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Birmingham games / 13 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Birmingham 26% | Draw 31% | Swansea 43%. Fair-value odds: Birmingham 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Swansea 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Swansea as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swansea if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Birmingham 17% | Swansea 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Birmingham vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: St Andrew's Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Birmingham 26% | Draw 31% | Swansea 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Birmingham 0.98 / Swansea 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Birmingham attack 0.676 / def 1.330 | Swansea attack 0.891 / def 1.379 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Swansea (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Birmingham xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Swansea xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Birmingham vs Swansea kick off?
Birmingham vs Swansea kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 October 2021 at St Andrew's Stadium.
What was the final score in Birmingham vs Swansea?
Birmingham 2 - 1 Swansea.
Where is Birmingham vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at St Andrew's Stadium.
What competition is Birmingham vs Swansea part of?
Birmingham vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Birmingham vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Birmingham a 26% chance of winning, Swansea a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Birmingham and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Birmingham vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Swansea?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Birmingham and Swansea in?
Birmingham (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Swansea (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Birmingham's attack at 0.68x the league average against Swansea's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Swansea's attack (0.89x) against Birmingham's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
26%
3.83
31%
3.26
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Birmingham xG
Total xG
2.32
1.33
Swansea xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
7%
14.55
16%
6.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 13.1 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Birmingham vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Birmingham and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Birmingham and 1.33 for Swansea, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Birmingham vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Birmingham come into this having played 13 games, going 3W 4D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Birmingham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Swansea sit at 1.31 PPG from 13 outings (4W 5D 4L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Birmingham against 1.31 for Swansea. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Birmingham's home form reads 1W 2D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Swansea have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Swansea's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Birmingham are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.08 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Birmingham have seen both teams score in 15% of their recent games.
Defensively: Birmingham have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; Swansea in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Birmingham
Blended
Swansea
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Birmingham and Swansea in coming into this match?
Birmingham have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while Swansea have gone 4W 5D 4L in their last 13 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Birmingham at home or Swansea away?
Birmingham's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Birmingham at home: 0.83 PPG; Swansea away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Birmingham or Swansea been keeping clean sheets recently?
Birmingham have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Swansea in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Birmingham have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Swansea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Birmingham
5
Draws
0
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Swansea?
From 8 meetings on record, Birmingham have won 3, Swansea have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Birmingham and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Swansea 1-1 Birmingham.
Who has won more matches between Birmingham and Swansea?
Birmingham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Birmingham see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Birmingham 17%, Swansea 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Birmingham) and 67% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Birmingham keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Swansea in 33%; Birmingham have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Birmingham home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Birmingham play Swansea?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Birmingham's recent matches and 67% of Swansea's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Birmingham vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Birmingham's recent games and 67% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Birmingham and Swansea tend to score early?
Birmingham have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Swansea in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Birmingham defy the odds to beat Swansea 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Birmingham beat Swansea 2-1 at St Andrew's Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Birmingham 0.98 xG and Swansea 1.33 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Birmingham beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Birmingham attack 0.68 / defence 1.33 against Swansea attack 0.89 / defence 1.38, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Birmingham 26% | Draw 31% | Swansea 43%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Birmingham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Birmingham 31%, Swansea 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 31%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Birmingham's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 15% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Swansea's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Birmingham 1.00 PPG, Swansea 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Birmingham win broke the near-deadlock. Birmingham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.