Birmingham 2-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Derby at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Birmingham vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 6 as Birmingham welcome Derby to St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 10 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Birmingham have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Birmingham have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Derby — All Games: 1W 3D 1L from 5 Championship fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Derby have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Birmingham 1.60 PPG, Derby 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Birmingham in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Derby in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Birmingham 20% versus Derby 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Birmingham 20% | Derby 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Birmingham 0.78 xG and Derby 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Birmingham attack 0.687 / defence 1.097 | Derby attack 0.793 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 0.964 / away 1.344. Birmingham's attack strength of 0.687 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Birmingham games / 5 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Birmingham 22% | Draw 35% | Derby 43%. Fair-value odds: Birmingham 4.55 | Draw 2.86 | Derby 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Birmingham 20% | Derby 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Birmingham vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Birmingham 22% | Draw 35% | Derby 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Birmingham 0.78 / Derby 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Birmingham attack 0.687 / def 1.097 | Derby attack 0.793 / def 1.170 | league avg home 0.964 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Derby (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Birmingham xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Derby xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Birmingham vs Derby kick off?
Birmingham vs Derby kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 10 September 2021 at St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium.
What was the final score in Birmingham vs Derby?
Birmingham 2 - 0 Derby.
Where is Birmingham vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium.
What competition is Birmingham vs Derby part of?
Birmingham vs Derby is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Birmingham vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Birmingham a 22% chance of winning, Derby a 43% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Birmingham vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Birmingham and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Birmingham vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Birmingham and Derby in?
Birmingham (all comps): 2W-2D-1L in 5 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Derby (all comps): 1W-3D-1L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Birmingham's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Birmingham's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
22%
4.55
35%
2.83
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Birmingham xG
Total xG
1.94
1.17
Derby xG
4.55
22%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
7%
14.62
20%
5.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 16.7 | 9.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Birmingham vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Birmingham and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Birmingham and 1.17 for Derby, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Birmingham vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Birmingham's recent record stands at 2W 2D 1L from 5 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Birmingham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 1L across 5 games — 1.20 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Derby, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Birmingham by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Derby heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Birmingham are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 0.80 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Birmingham have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Derby in 60%.
Defensively: Birmingham have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games; Derby in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Birmingham
Early Season
Derby
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Birmingham and Derby in coming into this match?
Birmingham have gone 2W 2D 1L in their last 5 games (1.60 PPG), while Derby have gone 1W 3D 1L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
Have Birmingham or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Birmingham have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Derby in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Birmingham's record when hosting Derby specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Birmingham
2
Draws
1
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Birmingham and Derby?
From 4 meetings on record, Birmingham have won 1, Derby have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Birmingham and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Derby 1-0 Birmingham.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Derby see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Birmingham 20%, Derby 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Birmingham and 20% for Derby.
On the defensive side: Birmingham keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Derby in 40%; Birmingham have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Birmingham home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Birmingham play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Birmingham's recent matches and 60% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Birmingham vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Birmingham's recent games and 20% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Birmingham and Derby tend to score early?
Birmingham have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Derby in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Birmingham cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Derby.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Birmingham beat Derby 2-0 at St Andrew's Trillion Trophy Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Birmingham 0.78 xG and Derby 1.17 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Birmingham beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Derby landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Birmingham attack 0.69 / defence 1.10 against Derby attack 0.79 / defence 1.17, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Birmingham 22% | Draw 35% | Derby 43%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Birmingham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 20% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Birmingham 20%, Derby 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Birmingham's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Derby's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Birmingham arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Derby managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.