Zlin vs Teplice – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Teplice at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Zlin vs Teplice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Teplice travel to Stadion Letna to take on Zlin. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 September 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Letna, Zlin have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Zlin are significantly better at Stadion Letna than their overall form suggests.
Teplice — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Teplice away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Teplice — 1.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 5 wins for Zlin, 4 for Teplice and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2026, ended 2–4 with Teplice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Zlin trading profile (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Teplice trading profile (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 54% versus Teplice 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 54% | Teplice 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.07 xG and Teplice 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.690 / defence 1.035 | Teplice attack 0.941 / defence 1.116. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.360. Zlin's attack strength of 0.690 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Zlin games / 36 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 30% | Draw 27% | Teplice 42%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Teplice 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Zlin 40% | Teplice 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion Letna • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 30% | Draw 27% | Teplice 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Zlin 1.07 / Teplice 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.690 / def 1.035 | Teplice attack 0.941 / def 1.116 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: Teplice (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Teplice xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Teplice kick off?
Zlin vs Teplice is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Sunday 6 September 2026 at Stadion Letna.
Where is Zlin vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letna.
What competition is Zlin vs Teplice part of?
Zlin vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 30% chance of winning, Teplice a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Zlin and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Teplice?
Record (10 meetings): Zlin 5W | Draws 1 | Teplice 4W.
What form are Zlin and Teplice in?
Zlin (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Teplice (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zlin's attack at 0.69x the league average against Teplice's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Teplice's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
30%
3.31
27%
3.65
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.40
1.33
Teplice xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
8%
12.45
14%
6.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Zlin and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Zlin and 1.33 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zlin come into this having played 41 games, going 11W 8D 22L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 1.27 PPG from 41 outings (13W 13D 15L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 1.00 PPG, Teplice on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Zlin's home form reads 6W 3D 10L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Teplice have taken 1.21 points per game from 19 outings (5W 8D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Zlin are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.27 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Early Season
Teplice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Teplice in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 11W 8D 22L in their last 41 games (1.00 PPG), while Teplice have gone 13W 13D 15L in their last 41 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Teplice away?
Teplice's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.11 PPG; Teplice away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Zlin or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zlin have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Teplice in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zlin and Teplice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Dec 2021, when Teplice won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting Teplice specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Zlin
1
Draws
4
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 5, Teplice have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Zlin 2-4 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Teplice?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Teplice see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 47%, Teplice 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Zlin) and 47% (Teplice).
On the defensive side: Teplice in 32%; Zlin have failed to score in 32% of games; Teplice in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Zlin's recent matches and 58% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zlin vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Zlin's recent games and 47% of Teplice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zlin and Teplice tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Teplice in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.