Zlin 0-1 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Slovan Liberec at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Zlin host Slovan Liberec at Stadion Letna in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Zlin have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Zlin have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zlin have posted 4W 0D 6L at Stadion Letna — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Zlin are significantly better at Stadion Letna than their overall form suggests.
Slovan Liberec — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Slovan Liberec have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Slovan Liberec have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Zlin) versus 1.00 (Slovan Liberec). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Zlin, 3 for Slovan Liberec and 1 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2026, ended 0–2 with Slovan Liberec winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Zlin in-play and half-time data (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Slovan Liberec in-play and half-time data (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 54% versus Slovan Liberec 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 54% | Slovan Liberec 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 0.88 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.745 / defence 1.116 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.091 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.340. Zlin's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Zlin games / 34 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 20% | Draw 26% | Slovan Liberec 55%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 5.00 | Draw 3.85 | Slovan Liberec 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Slovan Liberec (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Slovan Liberec as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 40% | Slovan Liberec 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Letna • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 20% | Draw 26% | Slovan Liberec 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 48% | xG Zlin 0.88 / Slovan Liberec 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.745 / def 1.116 | Slovan Liberec attack 1.091 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Slovan Liberec (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Slovan Liberec xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Zlin vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Stadion Letna.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Slovan Liberec?
Zlin 0 - 1 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Zlin vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letna.
What competition is Zlin vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Zlin vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 20% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 55% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Slovan Liberec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Zlin and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Slovan Liberec?
Record (8 meetings): Zlin 4W | Draws 1 | Slovan Liberec 3W.
What form are Zlin and Slovan Liberec in?
Zlin (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Zlin's attack at 0.74x the league average against Slovan Liberec's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovan Liberec's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-2 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Slovan Liberec Win
20%
5.02
26%
3.92
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Zlin xG
Total xG
2.51
1.63
Slovan Liberec xG
5.02
20%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
20%
5.10
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
4%
25.63
23%
4.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 13.2 | 10.8 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Zlin and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Zlin and 1.63 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Slovan Liberec?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zlin's recent record stands at 11W 8D 20L from 39 games, a 1.05 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Zlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Slovan Liberec, meanwhile, have gone 14W 11D 14L across 39 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zlin on 1.05 PPG, Slovan Liberec on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Zlin have managed 7W 4D 9L from 20 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Slovan Liberec's away record stands at 7W 5D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Zlin are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.28 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Early Season
Slovan Liberec
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 11W 8D 20L in their last 39 games (1.05 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 14W 11D 14L in their last 39 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Slovan Liberec's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.25 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Zlin or Slovan Liberec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Zlin have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Slovan Liberec in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Slovan Liberec go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Zlin's record when hosting Slovan Liberec specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Zlin
1
Draws
4
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Slovan Liberec?
From 9 meetings on record, Zlin have won 4, Slovan Liberec have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Zlin 0-1 Slovan Liberec.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 55%, Slovan Liberec 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Zlin) and 55% (Slovan Liberec). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Slovan Liberec?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Zlin's games and 55% of Slovan Liberec's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Zlin's matches and 55% of Slovan Liberec's.
Do Zlin and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Slovan Liberec edge out Zlin 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Slovan Liberec beat Zlin 0-1 at Stadion Letna, Regular Season - 5, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 0.88 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.63 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Zlin fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.74 / defence 1.12 against Slovan Liberec attack 1.09 / defence 0.81, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 20% | Draw 26% | Slovan Liberec 55%, with Slovan Liberec to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 54%, Slovan Liberec 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zlin 1.05 PPG, Slovan Liberec 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Slovan Liberec win broke the near-deadlock. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. Slovan Liberec (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.