Zlin 2-0 České Budějovice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates České Budějovice at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs České Budějovice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Zlin welcome České Budějovice to Stadion Letná. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Zlin — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin at Stadion Letná this season: 1W 0D 5L from 6 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Letná this season.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, České Budějovice have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for České Budějovice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
České Budějovice's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 3L across 5 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Zlin) versus 1.20 (České Budějovice). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zlin register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, České Budějovice in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Zlin in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
České Budějovice in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zlin 58% versus České Budějovice 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Zlin 75% | České Budějovice 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.49 xG and České Budějovice 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 0.900 / defence 1.745 | České Budějovice attack 0.932 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.269. České Budějovice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Zlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Zlin games / 12 České Budějovice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 28% | Draw 21% | České Budějovice 51%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 3.57 | Draw 4.76 | České Budějovice 1.96. České Budějovice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 2.06) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is České Budějovice at 51% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.55 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 67% | České Budějovice 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs České Budějovice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 28% | Draw 21% | České Budějovice 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG Zlin 1.49 / České Budějovice 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 0.900 / def 1.745 | České Budějovice attack 0.932 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: České Budějovice (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
2.06
České Budějovice xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs České Budějovice kick off?
Zlin vs České Budějovice kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs České Budějovice?
Zlin 2 - 0 České Budějovice.
Where is Zlin vs České Budějovice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs České Budějovice part of?
Zlin vs České Budějovice is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs České Budějovice?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 28% chance of winning, České Budějovice a 51% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making České Budějovice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs České Budějovice?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Zlin and České Budějovice will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs České Budějovice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and České Budějovice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Zlin and České Budějovice in?
Zlin (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. České Budějovice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Zlin's attack rating (0.90) and České Budějovice's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, České Budějovice's attack versus Zlin's defence, projects 2.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
České Budějovice Win
28%
3.60
21%
4.71
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Zlin xG
Total xG
3.55
2.06
České Budějovice xG
3.60
28%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
13%
7.88
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
4%
28.39
12%
8.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs České Budějovice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Zlin and České Budějovice expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Zlin and 2.06 for České Budějovice, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs České Budějovice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zlin's recent record stands at 3W 1D 8L from 12 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
České Budějovice, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 5L across 12 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for České Budějovice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours České Budějovice by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zlin heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zlin have managed 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — 0.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
České Budějovice's away record stands at 0W 2D 3L across 5 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of České Budějovice's season.
The Goals Picture
Zlin are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; České Budějovice are on 1.42 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 12 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Blended
České Budějovice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and České Budějovice in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 3W 1D 8L in their last 12 games (0.83 PPG), while České Budějovice have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or České Budějovice away?
Zlin's home record (0.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 0.60 PPG; České Budějovice away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zlin and České Budějovice runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Apr 2023, when Zlin won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zlin's record when hosting České Budějovice specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Zlin
5
Draws
0
České Budějovice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and České Budějovice?
From 7 meetings on record, Zlin have won 2, České Budějovice have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and České Budějovice last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2024, when Zlin 1-1 České Budějovice.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and České Budějovice?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
České Budějovice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Zlin at 80%, České Budějovice at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Zlin and 60% for České Budějovice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 80% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: České Budějovice in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / České Budějovice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play České Budějovice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Zlin's games and 60% of České Budějovice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs České Budějovice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Zlin's matches and 60% of České Budějovice's.
Do Zlin and České Budějovice tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, České Budějovice in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zlin cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over České Budějovice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat České Budějovice 2-0 at Stadion Letná, Regular Season - 13, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.49 xG and České Budějovice 2.06 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. České Budějovice landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 0.90 / defence 1.75 against České Budějovice attack 0.93 / defence 1.23, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 28% | Draw 21% | České Budějovice 51%, with České Budějovice to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Zlin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 75%, České Budějovice 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
České Budějovice's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, České Budějovice arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Zlin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Zlin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. České Budějovice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.