Zlin 2-1 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zlin at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zlin vs Baník Ostrava fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Zlin and Baník Ostrava meet at Stadion Letná in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 4. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 24 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Zlin's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Zlin's home record at Stadion Letná: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Baník Ostrava have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Czech Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Baník Ostrava's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Baník Ostrava arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Zlin register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Baník Ostrava in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Zlin lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Zlin — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Baník Ostrava — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zlin 65% and Baník Ostrava 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zlin 63% | Baník Ostrava 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zlin 1.60 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zlin attack 1.196 / defence 1.092 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.163 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.251. Data: 60 Zlin games / 60 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zlin 37% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 37%. Fair-value odds: Zlin 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Baník Ostrava 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Zlin 70% | Baník Ostrava 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zlin vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Stadion Letná • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zlin 37% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Zlin 1.60 / Baník Ostrava 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Zlin attack 1.196 / def 1.092 | Baník Ostrava attack 1.163 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Zlin xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Baník Ostrava xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zlin vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Zlin vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 24 May 2023 at Stadion Letná.
What was the final score in Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Zlin 2 - 1 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Zlin vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letná.
What competition is Zlin vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Zlin vs Baník Ostrava is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Zlin a 37% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Zlin and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Zlin vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Baník Ostrava?
Record (3 meetings): Zlin 0W | Draws 2 | Baník Ostrava 1W.
What form are Zlin and Baník Ostrava in?
Zlin (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Zlin's attack rating (1.20) and Baník Ostrava's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Baník Ostrava's attack (1.16x) against Zlin's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zlin Win
37%
2.68
26%
3.85
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Zlin xG
Total xG
3.19
1.59
Baník Ostrava xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
8%
13.11
7%
13.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.5 | 8.3 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Zlin and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Zlin and 1.59 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Zlin vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 68 outings, Zlin have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 15W 21D 32L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 26W 19D 23L from 68 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Baník Ostrava are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zlin.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Zlin have posted 1.29 PPG from 34 outings (12W 8D 14L).
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 10W 12D 12L from 34 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Zlin are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.62 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zlin have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Baník Ostrava in 66%.
Last 68 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zlin
Current Season
Baník Ostrava
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zlin and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Zlin have gone 15W 21D 32L in their last 68 games (0.97 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 26W 19D 23L in their last 68 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zlin at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Zlin's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zlin at home: 1.29 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Baník Ostrava have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Baník Ostrava won 5-1 on 23 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zlin have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Baník Ostrava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Zlin
3
Draws
6
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zlin and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Zlin have won 1, Baník Ostrava have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Zlin and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Zlin 0-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Zlin and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zlin 65%, Baník Ostrava 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Zlin and 53% for Baník Ostrava. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zlin home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zlin play Baník Ostrava?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Zlin's games and 65% of Baník Ostrava's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zlin vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Zlin's matches and 53% of Baník Ostrava's.
Do Zlin and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Zlin have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zlin edge out Baník Ostrava 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Baník Ostrava 2-1 at Stadion Letná, Relegation Round - 4, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zlin 1.60 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.59 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zlin attack 1.20 / defence 1.09 against Baník Ostrava attack 1.16 / defence 0.80, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zlin 37% | Draw 26% | Baník Ostrava 37%, with Zlin to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zlin 63%, Baník Ostrava 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zlin's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baník Ostrava arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Zlin winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.