Zbrojovka Brno 1-0 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zbrojovka Brno at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zbrojovka Brno vs Hradec Králové fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to Zbrojovka Brno versus Hradec Králové in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Wednesday 2 September 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Zbrojovka Brno (all games): 3W 1D 1L across 5 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Zbrojovka Brno have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Zbrojovka Brno have posted 2W 0D 1L at — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hradec Králové's overall Czech Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Hradec Králové have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hradec Králové away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Zbrojovka Brno, 1.70 for Hradec Králové — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Zbrojovka Brno, 2 for Hradec Králové and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Hradec Králové winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Zbrojovka Brno goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%.
Hradec Králové goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zbrojovka Brno 60% and Hradec Králové 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zbrojovka Brno 40% | Hradec Králové 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zbrojovka Brno 1.40 xG and Hradec Králové 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.061 / defence 1.086 | Hradec Králové attack 0.762 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.383. Data: 5 Zbrojovka Brno games / 34 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 43% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 31%. Fair-value odds: Zbrojovka Brno 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Hradec Králové 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Zbrojovka Brno as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Zbrojovka Brno if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Zbrojovka Brno 67% | Hradec Králové 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zbrojovka Brno vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zbrojovka Brno 43% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Zbrojovka Brno 1.40 / Hradec Králové 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.061 / def 1.086 | Hradec Králové attack 0.762 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.383 • Poisson stance: Zbrojovka Brno (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Hradec Králové xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zbrojovka Brno vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 2 September 2026.
What was the final score in Zbrojovka Brno vs Hradec Králové?
Zbrojovka Brno 1 - 0 Hradec Králové.
What competition is Zbrojovka Brno vs Hradec Králové part of?
Zbrojovka Brno vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Zbrojovka Brno vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Zbrojovka Brno a 43% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Zbrojovka Brno the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zbrojovka Brno vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Zbrojovka Brno and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Zbrojovka Brno vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Hradec Králové?
Record (2 meetings): Zbrojovka Brno 0W | Draws 0 | Hradec Králové 2W.
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Hradec Králové in?
Zbrojovka Brno (all comps): 3W-1D-1L in 5 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Hradec Králové (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Zbrojovka Brno's attack rating (1.06) and Hradec Králové's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hradec Králové's attack (0.76x) against Zbrojovka Brno's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 5/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zbrojovka Brno Win
43%
2.34
26%
3.78
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Zbrojovka Brno xG
Total xG
2.54
1.15
Hradec Králové xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
14%
7.36
8%
13.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zbrojovka Brno vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Zbrojovka Brno and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Zbrojovka Brno and 1.15 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Zbrojovka Brno vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 5 outings, Zbrojovka Brno have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 3W 1D 1L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Zbrojovka Brno, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Hradec Králové's form line: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Hradec Králové, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Zbrojovka Brno are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hradec Králové.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Zbrojovka Brno have posted 2.00 PPG from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.40 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hradec Králové's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zbrojovka Brno come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Zbrojovka Brno are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zbrojovka Brno have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Hradec Králové in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zbrojovka Brno
Early Season
Hradec Králové
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zbrojovka Brno and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Zbrojovka Brno have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 games (2.00 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zbrojovka Brno at home or Hradec Králové away?
Zbrojovka Brno's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zbrojovka Brno at home: 2.00 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Zbrojovka Brno have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hradec Králové — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Zbrojovka Brno
0
Draws
2
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zbrojovka Brno and Hradec Králové?
From 3 meetings on record, Zbrojovka Brno have won 1, Hradec Králové have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zbrojovka Brno and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when Zbrojovka Brno 1-0 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Zbrojovka Brno and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Zbrojovka Brno are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zbrojovka Brno 67%, Hradec Králové 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Zbrojovka Brno) and 33% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Hradec Králové in 33%; Zbrojovka Brno have failed to score in 33% of games; Hradec Králové in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zbrojovka Brno home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zbrojovka Brno play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Zbrojovka Brno's recent matches and 33% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zbrojovka Brno vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Zbrojovka Brno's recent games and 33% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zbrojovka Brno and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Zbrojovka Brno have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zbrojovka Brno edge out Hradec Králové 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zbrojovka Brno beat Hradec Králové 1-0 at , Regular Season - 4, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zbrojovka Brno 1.40 xG and Hradec Králové 1.15 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hradec Králové landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.06 / defence 1.09 against Hradec Králové attack 0.76 / defence 0.94, drawn from 5/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zbrojovka Brno 43% | Draw 26% | Hradec Králové 31%, with Zbrojovka Brno to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zbrojovka Brno 40%, Hradec Králové 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zbrojovka Brno's trading profile (5 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (5 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Zbrojovka Brno arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.40. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Zbrojovka Brno (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.