Vlašim 2-2 Teplice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vlašim at 39%, yet in-form Teplice provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vlašim vs Teplice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Kollárova ulice plays host to Vlašim versus Teplice in Czech Liga, Relegation Round. Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vlašim have collected 0.00 PPG across 1 Czech Liga outings this season: 0W 0D 1L. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Vlašim have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Czech Liga this season, Teplice have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Teplice are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using overall form) — Vlašim have seen both teams score in just 0% of their matches, Teplice in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Vlašim 0W, Teplice 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2022, ended 0–3 with Teplice winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vlašim 1.17 xG and Teplice 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vlašim attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Teplice attack 0.801 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.085. Data: 0 Vlašim games / 30 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vlašim 39% | Draw 30% | Teplice 31%. Fair-value odds: Vlašim 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Teplice 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vlašim as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Teplice (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vlašim if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vlašim vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round | Venue: Stadion Kollárova ulice • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vlašim 39% | Draw 30% | Teplice 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Vlašim 1.17 / Teplice 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Vlašim attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Teplice attack 0.801 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Vlašim (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Vlašim xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Teplice xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vlašim vs Teplice kick off?
Vlašim vs Teplice kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Stadion Kollárova ulice.
What was the final score in Vlašim vs Teplice?
Vlašim 2 - 2 Teplice.
Where is Vlašim vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kollárova ulice.
What competition is Vlašim vs Teplice part of?
Vlašim vs Teplice is a Relegation Round fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Vlašim vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Vlašim a 39% chance of winning, Teplice a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Vlašim the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vlašim vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Vlašim and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Vlašim vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vlašim and Teplice?
Record (1 meetings): Vlašim 0W | Draws 0 | Teplice 1W.
What form are Vlašim and Teplice in?
Vlašim (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L. Teplice (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Vlašim's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Teplice's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.17. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.80x) against Vlašim's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vlašim Win
39%
2.55
30%
3.34
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Vlašim xG
Total xG
2.17
1.00
Teplice xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
14%
6.92
10%
10.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vlašim vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Vlašim and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Vlašim and 1.00 for Teplice, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Vlašim vs Teplice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vlašim come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. It's still early in the season for Vlašim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Teplice sit at 3.00 PPG from 1 outings (1W 0D 0L), a run that reads W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Teplice carry the stronger recent form of the two, 3.00 PPG clear of Vlašim — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vlašim are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 3.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vlašim have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Teplice in 0%.
Defensively: Teplice in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vlašim
Early Season
Teplice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vlašim and Teplice in coming into this match?
Vlašim have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Teplice have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Vlašim or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vlašim have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Teplice in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vlašim
1
Draws
1
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vlašim and Teplice?
From 2 meetings on record, Vlašim have won 0, Teplice have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vlašim and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2022, when Vlašim 2-2 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Vlašim and Teplice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vlašim home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vlašim play Teplice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Vlašim's recent matches and 0% of Teplice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vlašim vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Vlašim's matches and 100% of Teplice's.
Do Vlašim and Teplice tend to score early?
Vlašim have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Teplice in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vlašim and Teplice share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vlašim and Teplice finished level at 2-2 at Stadion Kollárova ulice, Relegation Round, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vlašim 1.17 xG and Teplice 1.00 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Vlašim beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Teplice outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vlašim attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Teplice attack 0.80 / defence 1.20, drawn from 0/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vlašim 39% | Draw 30% | Teplice 31%, with Vlašim to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vlašim 100%, Teplice 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Teplice arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Vlašim scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Teplice managed 2 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.