Teplice 1-3 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Zlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 1 as Teplice welcome Zlin to AGC Arena Na Stinadlech. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 July 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Teplice haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Teplice have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Teplice, 3 for Zlin and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 2–1 with Teplice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.49 xG and Zlin 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.936 / defence 0.899 | Zlin attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.321. Data: 30 Teplice games / 0 Zlin games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Teplice 48% | Draw 26% | Zlin 25%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Zlin 4.00. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Jul 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 48% | Draw 26% | Zlin 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Teplice 1.49 / Zlin 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.936 / def 0.899 | Zlin attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Teplice (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Zlin xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Zlin kick off?
Teplice vs Zlin kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 July 2025 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Zlin?
Teplice 1 - 3 Zlin.
Where is Teplice vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Zlin part of?
Teplice vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 48% chance of winning, Zlin a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Teplice and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Zlin?
Record (6 meetings): Teplice 2W | Draws 1 | Zlin 3W.
What form are Teplice and Zlin in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Teplice (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Teplice's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
48%
2.07
26%
3.80
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.50
1.01
Zlin xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
6%
17.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Teplice and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Teplice and 1.01 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Zlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Pre-Season
Zlin
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Teplice have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2022, when Zlin won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Teplice's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
1
Draws
5
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Zlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 4, Zlin have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Zlin 1-3 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Zlin?
Zlin have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Zlin cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zlin beat Teplice 1-3 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 1, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.49 xG and Zlin 1.01 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Zlin outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.94 / defence 0.90 against Zlin attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 48% | Draw 26% | Zlin 25%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Zlin win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.