Teplice 1-0 Slovácko – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Slovácko fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Slovácko at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 March 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Teplice have posted 4W 1D 5L at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Slovácko have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slovácko, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Slovácko have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Teplice at 1.20 PPG versus Slovácko's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Teplice register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Slovácko in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Teplice, 3 for Slovácko and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 2–0 with Teplice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Teplice in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
Slovácko in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 52% versus Slovácko 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 44% | Slovácko 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.97 xG and Slovácko 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.996 / defence 1.043 | Slovácko attack 1.016 / defence 1.378. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.141. Slovácko bring a strong defensive rating of 1.378 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Teplice games / 54 Slovácko games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 53% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 22%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Slovácko 4.55. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Teplice are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Teplice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 60% | Slovácko 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Slovácko | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 53% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Teplice 1.97 / Slovácko 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.996 / def 1.043 | Slovácko attack 1.016 / def 1.378 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Teplice (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Slovácko xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Slovácko kick off?
Teplice vs Slovácko kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Slovácko?
Teplice 1 - 0 Slovácko.
Where is Teplice vs Slovácko being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Slovácko part of?
Teplice vs Slovácko is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 53% chance of winning, Slovácko a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Teplice and Slovácko will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Slovácko have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovácko?
Record (5 meetings): Teplice 1W | Draws 1 | Slovácko 3W.
What form are Teplice and Slovácko in?
Teplice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Slovácko (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Teplice's attack at 1.00x the league average against Slovácko's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Slovácko's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
53%
1.88
25%
3.97
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Teplice xG
Total xG
3.17
1.21
Slovácko xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
3%
33.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.9 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Slovácko?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Teplice and Slovácko expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Teplice and 1.21 for Slovácko, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Slovácko?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Teplice come into this having played 59 games, going 18W 14D 27L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slovácko sit at 1.24 PPG from 59 outings (19W 16D 24L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Slovácko is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.15 PPG, Slovácko on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Teplice's home form reads 11W 8D 10L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Slovácko have taken 1.10 points per game from 29 outings (9W 5D 15L).
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Slovácko are on 1.14 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Slovácko
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Slovácko in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 18W 14D 27L in their last 59 games (1.15 PPG), while Slovácko have gone 19W 16D 24L in their last 59 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Slovácko away?
Teplice's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.41 PPG; Slovácko away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Teplice or Slovácko been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Slovácko in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Teplice's record when hosting Slovácko specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
2
Draws
4
Slovácko
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Slovácko?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 4, Slovácko have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Slovácko last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Teplice 1-1 Slovácko.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Slovácko are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 48%, Slovácko 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Teplice) and 59% (Slovácko).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Slovácko in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Slovácko away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Slovácko?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Teplice's recent matches and 48% of Slovácko's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Slovácko usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Teplice's recent games and 59% of Slovácko's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Slovácko tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Slovácko in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Teplice edge out Slovácko 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Slovácko 1-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 26, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.97 xG and Slovácko 1.21 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Teplice fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Slovácko landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 1.00 / defence 1.04 against Slovácko attack 1.02 / defence 1.38, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 53% | Draw 25% | Slovácko 22%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 44%, Slovácko 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Slovácko's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.15 PPG, Slovácko 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Slovácko (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.