Teplice 2-2 Plzen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plzen at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Plzen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Czech Liga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Plzen travel to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to take on Teplice. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 July 2022, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Teplice stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Teplice haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Teplice's home record at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Plzen have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Plzen haven't played a Czech Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Plzen away from home this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Plzen — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Teplice have won 0, Plzen 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Plzen winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Teplice in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Plzen in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 43% versus Plzen 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 57% | Plzen 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.12 xG and Plzen 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.916 / defence 1.041 | Plzen attack 1.035 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.116. Data: 30 Teplice games / 30 Plzen games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Teplice 33% | Draw 30% | Plzen 37%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Plzen 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plzen as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plzen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 30% | Plzen 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Plzen | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jul 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 33% | Draw 30% | Plzen 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Teplice 1.12 / Plzen 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.916 / def 1.041 | Plzen attack 1.035 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Plzen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Plzen xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Plzen kick off?
Teplice vs Plzen kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 30 July 2022 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Plzen?
Teplice 2 - 2 Plzen.
Where is Teplice vs Plzen being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Plzen part of?
Teplice vs Plzen is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Plzen?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 33% chance of winning, Plzen a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Plzen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Plzen?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Teplice and Plzen will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Plzen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Plzen?
Record (2 meetings): Teplice 0W | Draws 0 | Plzen 2W.
What form are Teplice and Plzen in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Teplice (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.92x the league average against Plzen's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Plzen's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plzen Win
33%
3.04
30%
3.29
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.33
1.20
Plzen xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
32%
3.08
Win to Nil
10%
10.11
12%
8.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.7 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Plzen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Teplice and Plzen expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Teplice and 1.20 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Plzen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Teplice have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 9W 6D 20L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. Teplice haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Plzen's form line: 26W 7D 2L from 35 games, 2.43 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. Plzen haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Plzen are the form team by 1.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
Venue Form
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.00 PPG from 17 outings (5W 2D 10L).
On the road, Plzen have gone 10W 5D 2L from 17 away games — 2.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plzen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Plzen are on 1.80 scored and 0.60 conceded.
Defensively: Plzen in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Pre-Season
Plzen
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Plzen in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 9W 6D 20L in their last 35 games (0.94 PPG), while Plzen have gone 26W 7D 2L in their last 35 (2.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Plzen away?
Plzen's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.00 PPG; Plzen away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Teplice or Plzen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Plzen in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2024, when Plzen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Teplice's record when hosting Plzen specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Teplice
4
Draws
5
Plzen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Plzen?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 1, Plzen have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Plzen last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Plzen 2-2 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Plzen?
Plzen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Plzen see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 41%, Plzen 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Teplice) and 29% (Plzen).
On the defensive side: Plzen in 47%; Teplice have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Plzen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Plzen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Teplice's recent matches and 41% of Plzen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Plzen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Teplice's recent games and 29% of Plzen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Plzen tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Plzen in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice and Plzen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 1, as Teplice and Plzen drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.12 xG and Plzen 1.20 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Teplice beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.92 / defence 1.04 against Plzen attack 1.03 / defence 0.87, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 33% | Draw 30% | Plzen 37%, with Plzen to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 57%, Plzen 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Plzen's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Plzen arrived the stronger side — 2.43 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Plzen (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.