Teplice 0-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Teplice at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Teplice vs Pardubice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Teplice and Pardubice meet at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 September 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Teplice have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech than their overall form suggests.
Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pardubice have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Teplice against 0.60 for Pardubice. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Teplice, who have won 5 of the last 8 meetings against Pardubice — a 1D 2W return for the visitors.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 May 2025, ended 3–0 with Teplice winning.
The historical record gives Teplice a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Pardubice — key trading statistics (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 52% versus Pardubice 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 48% | Pardubice 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.77 xG and Pardubice 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 1.026 / defence 1.097 | Pardubice attack 1.019 / defence 1.280. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.285. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.280 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Teplice games / 38 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 44% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 30%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Pardubice 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.77 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Teplice 30% | Pardubice 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 44% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Teplice 1.77 / Pardubice 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 1.026 / def 1.097 | Pardubice attack 1.019 / def 1.280 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Teplice (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Pardubice xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Pardubice kick off?
Teplice vs Pardubice kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Pardubice?
Teplice 0 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is Teplice vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Pardubice part of?
Teplice vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 44% chance of winning, Pardubice a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Teplice and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Pardubice?
Record (8 meetings): Teplice 5W | Draws 1 | Pardubice 2W.
What form are Teplice and Pardubice in?
Teplice (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Pardubice (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Teplice's attack at 1.03x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (1.02x) against Teplice's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.90
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Teplice xG
Total xG
3.21
1.44
Pardubice xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.82
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
17%
5.86
Win to Nil
11%
9.50
5%
19.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.3 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Teplice and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Teplice and 1.44 for Pardubice, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Pardubice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Teplice come into this having played 44 games, going 13W 10D 21L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 0.70 PPG from 44 outings (7W 10D 27L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Pardubice — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Teplice's home form reads 10W 2D 10L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.32 points per game from 22 outings (1W 4D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 0.80 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 13W 10D 21L in their last 44 games (1.11 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 7W 10D 27L in their last 44 (0.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Pardubice away?
Teplice's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.45 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 5-1 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Teplice
3
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 5, Pardubice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Pardubice 1-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Pardubice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 50%, Pardubice 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Teplice) and 50% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Pardubice in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Teplice's recent matches and 41% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Teplice's recent games and 50% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Pardubice tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Teplice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 10, as Teplice and Pardubice drew 0-0 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.77 xG and Pardubice 1.44 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Teplice fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Pardubice landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 1.03 / defence 1.10 against Pardubice attack 1.02 / defence 1.28, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 44% | Draw 26% | Pardubice 30%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 48%, Pardubice 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Pardubice's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Teplice arrived the stronger side — 1.11 PPG against 0.70. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.