Teplice 3-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Teplice (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Teplice face Pardubice.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Teplice and Pardubice meet at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 May 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech than their overall form suggests.
Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Pardubice have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Teplice. A 0.60 PPG lead over Pardubice (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Teplice have seen both teams score in just 20% of their games, Pardubice in only 20%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Teplice lead 4W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 2–0 with Teplice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Pardubice — key trading statistics (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 50% versus Pardubice 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 41% | Pardubice 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.61 xG and Pardubice 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.871 / defence 0.836 | Pardubice attack 0.777 / defence 1.356. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.203. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.356 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Teplice games / 60 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 57% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 18%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Pardubice 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Teplice (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 20% | Pardubice 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Sunday 25 May 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 57% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 43% | xG Teplice 1.61 / Pardubice 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.871 / def 0.836 | Pardubice attack 0.777 / def 1.356 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Teplice (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Pardubice xG
43%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Pardubice kick off?
Teplice vs Pardubice kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 25 May 2025 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Pardubice?
Teplice 3 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is Teplice vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Pardubice part of?
Teplice vs Pardubice is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 57% chance of winning, Pardubice a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Teplice and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Pardubice?
Record (7 meetings): Teplice 4W | Draws 1 | Pardubice 2W.
What form are Teplice and Pardubice in?
Teplice (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Pardubice (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.87x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.78x) against Teplice's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
57%
1.76
25%
3.98
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.39
0.78
Pardubice xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
26%
3.84
4%
27.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 11.5 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Teplice and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Teplice and 0.78 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Pardubice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Teplice come into this having played 68 games, going 22W 17D 29L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 0.96 PPG from 68 outings (17W 14D 37L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Teplice against 0.96 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Teplice's home form reads 14W 9D 11L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.76 points per game from 34 outings (7W 5D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 0.94 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Current Season
Pardubice
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 22W 17D 29L in their last 68 games (1.22 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 17W 14D 37L in their last 68 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Pardubice away?
Teplice's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.50 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 5-1 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Teplice
3
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 5, Pardubice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Pardubice 1-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Pardubice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 44%, Pardubice 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Teplice) and 47% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Pardubice in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Teplice's recent matches and 38% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Teplice's recent games and 47% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Pardubice tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Teplice run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Pardubice 3-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Relegation Round - 5, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.61 xG and Pardubice 0.78 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Teplice beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.87 / defence 0.84 against Pardubice attack 0.78 / defence 1.36, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 57% | Draw 25% | Pardubice 18%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 41%, Pardubice 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Pardubice's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.22 PPG, Pardubice 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.