Teplice 2-0 Pardubice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Pardubice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Teplice and Pardubice meet at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 March 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pardubice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Pardubice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Pardubice have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Teplice. A 0.50 PPG lead over Pardubice (1.20 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Teplice lead 3W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with Teplice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Pardubice — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 53% versus Pardubice 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 46% | Pardubice 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.82 xG and Pardubice 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.946 / defence 1.086 | Pardubice attack 0.666 / defence 1.277. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.229. Pardubice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.277 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 53 Teplice games / 53 Pardubice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 59% | Draw 23% | Pardubice 18%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Pardubice 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Teplice (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 70% | Pardubice 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Pardubice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Mar 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 59% | Draw 23% | Pardubice 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 50% | xG Teplice 1.82 / Pardubice 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.946 / def 1.086 | Pardubice attack 0.666 / def 1.277 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Teplice (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Pardubice xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Pardubice kick off?
Teplice vs Pardubice kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 1 March 2025 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Pardubice?
Teplice 2 - 0 Pardubice.
Where is Teplice vs Pardubice being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Pardubice part of?
Teplice vs Pardubice is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Pardubice?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 59% chance of winning, Pardubice a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Pardubice?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Teplice and Pardubice will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Pardubice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Pardubice?
Record (6 meetings): Teplice 3W | Draws 1 | Pardubice 2W.
What form are Teplice and Pardubice in?
Teplice (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Pardubice (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.95x the league average against Pardubice's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pardubice's attack (0.67x) against Teplice's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.35
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.71
0.89
Pardubice xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
24%
4.10
3%
34.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.8 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Pardubice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Teplice and Pardubice expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Teplice and 0.89 for Pardubice, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Pardubice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Teplice come into this having played 57 games, going 17W 13D 27L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pardubice sit at 0.96 PPG from 57 outings (14W 13D 30L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Pardubice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Teplice against 0.96 for Pardubice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Teplice's home form reads 10W 8D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Pardubice have taken 0.93 points per game from 28 outings (7W 5D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Pardubice are on 0.98 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Pardubice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Pardubice in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 17W 13D 27L in their last 57 games (1.12 PPG), while Pardubice have gone 14W 13D 30L in their last 57 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Pardubice away?
Teplice's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.36 PPG; Pardubice away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 5-1 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Pardubice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Teplice
3
Draws
2
Pardubice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Pardubice?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 5, Pardubice have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Pardubice last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Pardubice 1-1 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Pardubice?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Pardubice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 50%, Pardubice 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Teplice) and 50% (Pardubice).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Pardubice in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Pardubice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Pardubice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Teplice's recent matches and 39% of Pardubice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Pardubice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Teplice's recent games and 50% of Pardubice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Pardubice tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Pardubice in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Pardubice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Pardubice 2-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 24, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.82 xG and Pardubice 0.89 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Pardubice landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.95 / defence 1.09 against Pardubice attack 0.67 / defence 1.28, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 59% | Draw 23% | Pardubice 18%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 46%, Pardubice 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Pardubice's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.12 PPG, Pardubice 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Pardubice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.