Teplice 2-3 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mlada Boleslav make the trip to AGC Arena Na Stinadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Teplice (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Teplice have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech than their overall form suggests.
Mlada Boleslav's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.60. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Mlada Boleslav have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mlada Boleslav's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Teplice against 0.80 for Mlada Boleslav. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Teplice lead 2W to 4W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Mlada Boleslav winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 51% versus Mlada Boleslav 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 49% | Mlada Boleslav 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.71 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.983 / defence 0.993 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.129 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.197. Mlada Boleslav bring a strong defensive rating of 1.252 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Teplice games / 36 Mlada Boleslav games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 46% | Draw 24% | Mlada Boleslav 30%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Mlada Boleslav 3.33. Teplice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 20% | Mlada Boleslav 70%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 46% | Draw 24% | Mlada Boleslav 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Teplice 1.71 / Mlada Boleslav 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.983 / def 0.993 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.129 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Teplice (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Mlada Boleslav xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Teplice 2 - 3 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 46% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Teplice and Mlada Boleslav will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Mlada Boleslav?
Record (7 meetings): Teplice 2W | Draws 1 | Mlada Boleslav 4W.
What form are Teplice and Mlada Boleslav in?
Teplice (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Mlada Boleslav (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Teplice's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (1.13x) against Teplice's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
46%
2.18
24%
4.17
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Teplice xG
Total xG
3.05
1.34
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
12%
8.35
5%
18.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Teplice and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Teplice and 1.34 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Teplice come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 8D 20L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Mlada Boleslav sit at 1.10 PPG from 41 outings (12W 9D 20L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Mlada Boleslav, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Teplice against 1.10 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Teplice's home form reads 9W 2D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Mlada Boleslav have taken 0.95 points per game from 19 outings (5W 3D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.44 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Early Season
Mlada Boleslav
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 13W 8D 20L in their last 41 games (1.15 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 12W 9D 20L in their last 41 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Teplice's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.53 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mlada Boleslav won 3-0 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Teplice
2
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Mlada Boleslav?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 3, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Mlada Boleslav 0-2 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 42%, Mlada Boleslav 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Teplice) and 68% (Mlada Boleslav). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Mlada Boleslav?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 42% of Teplice's games and 68% of Mlada Boleslav's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Teplice's matches and 68% of Mlada Boleslav's.
Do Teplice and Mlada Boleslav tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Mlada Boleslav in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mlada Boleslav defy the odds to beat Teplice 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mlada Boleslav beat Teplice 2-3 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 8, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.71 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.34 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Mlada Boleslav outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.13 / defence 1.25, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 46% | Draw 24% | Mlada Boleslav 30%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Mlada Boleslav win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 49%, Mlada Boleslav 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.15 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mlada Boleslav win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.