Teplice 1-0 Mlada Boleslav – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 38%, yet in-form Mlada Boleslav provide a compelling counter-argument — this Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mlada Boleslav make the trip to AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech to face Teplice in Czech Liga (matchday 14). The match kicks off on Saturday 4 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Teplice (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Teplice have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Teplice are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Mlada Boleslav's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mlada Boleslav's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Mlada Boleslav are 1.30 PPG clear of Teplice over their recent games (1.90 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Teplice, 0 for Mlada Boleslav and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Apr 2023, ended Teplice 1–1 Mlada Boleslav — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Teplice — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Mlada Boleslav — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 59% versus Mlada Boleslav 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 54% | Mlada Boleslav 59%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Teplice surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Mlada Boleslav have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Mlada Boleslav surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Teplice recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.42 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.599 / defence 0.755 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.539 / defence 1.422. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.176. Teplice's attack rating of 0.599 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.42. Mlada Boleslav's defence rating of 1.422 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Teplice's projected output up. Mlada Boleslav have an above-average attack rating of 1.539, which lifts their away xG to 1.37. Teplice have a tight defence (rating 0.755), which is pulling Mlada Boleslav's projected output down. Data: built from Teplice's last 43 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 42.
Result probabilities: Teplice 38% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 36%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.60 | Draw 3.94 | Mlada Boleslav 2.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Teplice as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mlada Boleslav (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Teplice 40% (last 10 home games) | Mlada Boleslav 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav | Competition: Czech Liga, matchday 14 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 38% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Teplice 1.42 / Mlada Boleslav 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.599 / def 0.755 | Mlada Boleslav attack 1.539 / def 1.422 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Teplice (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Mlada Boleslav xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav FAQs
What time does Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav kick off?
Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Teplice 1 - 0 Mlada Boleslav.
Where is Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav part of?
Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav is a Czech Liga fixture (matchday 14) (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 38% chance of winning, Mlada Boleslav a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Teplice and Mlada Boleslav will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Teplice's attacking strength (0.60x league average) is weighed against Mlada Boleslav's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Mlada Boleslav's attack (1.54x) against Teplice's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from Teplice's last 43 games and Mlada Boleslav's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
38%
2.60
25%
3.94
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.78
1.37
Mlada Boleslav xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
25%
3.92
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
10%
10.21
9%
11.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Teplice and Mlada Boleslav expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Teplice and 1.37 for Mlada Boleslav, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Teplice come into this having played 44 games, going 13W 12D 19L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Mlada Boleslav sit at 1.39 PPG from 44 outings (16W 13D 15L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Teplice against 1.39 for Mlada Boleslav. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Teplice's home form reads 8W 9D 5L across their last 22 home games, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Mlada Boleslav have taken 1.23 points per game from their last 22 away games (8W 3D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Teplice are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Mlada Boleslav are on 1.57 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
Teplice (Home) vs Mlada Boleslav (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Teplice
Blended
Mlada Boleslav
Blended
❓ Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav Form FAQs
What form are Teplice and Mlada Boleslav in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 13W 12D 19L in their last 44 games (1.16 PPG), while Mlada Boleslav have gone 16W 13D 15L in their last 44 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Mlada Boleslav away?
Teplice's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.50 PPG; Mlada Boleslav away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Teplice and Mlada Boleslav, the earliest from April 2023. All of them came in Czech Liga. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Mlada Boleslav — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Teplice
2
Draws
5
Mlada Boleslav
Recent Meetings
❓ Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Mlada Boleslav?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Teplice have won 3, Mlada Boleslav have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Mlada Boleslav last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Mlada Boleslav 1-0 Teplice.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Mlada Boleslav?
Mlada Boleslav have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Mlada Boleslav are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 54%, Mlada Boleslav 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Teplice) and 64% (Mlada Boleslav).
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 32% of games; Mlada Boleslav in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Mlada Boleslav away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Teplice vs Mlada Boleslav Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Teplice and Mlada Boleslav matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Teplice's recent matches and 54% of Mlada Boleslav's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Teplice and Mlada Boleslav matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Teplice's recent games and 64% of Mlada Boleslav's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Mlada Boleslav matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Teplice's recent matches and 77% of Mlada Boleslav's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Teplice edge out Mlada Boleslav 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Teplice beat Mlada Boleslav 1-0 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 14, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.42 xG and Mlada Boleslav 1.37 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mlada Boleslav landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.60 / defence 0.76 against Mlada Boleslav attack 1.54 / defence 1.42, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 38% | Draw 25% | Mlada Boleslav 36%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 54%, Mlada Boleslav 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Mlada Boleslav's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.16 PPG, Mlada Boleslav 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Teplice win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Mlada Boleslav (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.