Teplice 0-1 Hradec Králové – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Hradec Králové (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Teplice face Hradec Králové.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Hradec Králové at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Teplice — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Teplice's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hradec Králové stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Hradec Králové away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Hradec Králové are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Hradec Králové have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 9 encounters against Teplice's 2 victories.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 9 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Hradec Králové have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Teplice in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Hradec Králové in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 52% versus Hradec Králové 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 44% | Hradec Králové 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.00 xG and Hradec Králové 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.764 / defence 0.935 | Hradec Králové attack 1.082 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.404 / away 1.181. Teplice's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Teplice games / 59 Hradec Králové games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 29% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 38%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | Hradec Králové 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hradec Králové at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hradec Králové offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 40% | Hradec Králové 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Hradec Králové | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: AGC Arena Na Stinadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 29% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Teplice 1.00 / Hradec Králové 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.764 / def 0.935 | Hradec Králové attack 1.082 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.404 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Hradec Králové (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Hradec Králové xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Hradec Králové kick off?
Teplice vs Hradec Králové kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 April 2026 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Teplice 0 - 1 Hradec Králové.
Where is Teplice vs Hradec Králové being played?
The match is being played at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Hradec Králové part of?
Teplice vs Hradec Králové is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 29% chance of winning, Hradec Králové a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Hradec Králové the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Teplice and Hradec Králové will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Hradec Králové have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Hradec Králové?
Record (9 meetings): Teplice 2W | Draws 1 | Hradec Králové 6W.
What form are Teplice and Hradec Králové in?
Teplice (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Hradec Králové (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.76x the league average against Hradec Králové's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Hradec Králové's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hradec Králové Win
29%
3.49
33%
3.04
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.19
1.19
Hradec Králové xG
3.49
29%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
9%
11.52
14%
7.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Teplice and Hradec Králové expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Teplice and 1.19 for Hradec Králové, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Hradec Králové?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 18W 19D 26L record — D-D-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Hradec Králové's form line: 27W 14D 22L from 63 games, 1.51 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.16 PPG, Hradec Králové on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.42 PPG from 31 outings (13W 5D 13L).
On the road, Hradec Králové have gone 11W 5D 15L from 31 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Teplice are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Hradec Králové are on 1.30 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Current Season
Hradec Králové
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Hradec Králové in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 18W 19D 26L in their last 63 games (1.16 PPG), while Hradec Králové have gone 27W 14D 22L in their last 63 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Hradec Králové away?
Teplice's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.42 PPG; Hradec Králové away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Teplice or Hradec Králové been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Hradec Králové in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Hradec Králové won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Teplice's record when hosting Hradec Králové specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Teplice
1
Draws
7
Hradec Králové
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Hradec Králové?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 2, Hradec Králové have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Hradec Králové last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Teplice 0-1 Hradec Králové.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Hradec Králové?
Hradec Králové have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Hradec Králové are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 45%, Hradec Králové 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Teplice) and 52% (Hradec Králové).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Hradec Králové in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Hradec Králové away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Hradec Králové?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Teplice's recent matches and 42% of Hradec Králové's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Hradec Králové usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Teplice's recent games and 52% of Hradec Králové's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Hradec Králové tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Hradec Králové in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hradec Králové edge out Teplice 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hradec Králové beat Teplice 0-1 at AGC Arena Na Stinadlech, Regular Season - 27, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.00 xG and Hradec Králové 1.19 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Teplice fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.76 / defence 0.94 against Hradec Králové attack 1.08 / defence 0.93, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 29% | Draw 33% | Hradec Králové 38%, with Hradec Králové to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 44%, Hradec Králové 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Hradec Králové's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.16 PPG, Hradec Králové 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hradec Králové win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Hradec Králové (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.