Teplice 2-2 Bohemians 1905 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Teplice at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Teplice and Bohemians 1905 meet at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Teplice have gone 4W 0D 6L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Bohemians 1905 (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 0W 2D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Teplice's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Bohemians 1905's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Teplice half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Bohemians 1905 half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 43% versus Bohemians 1905 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 53% | Bohemians 1905 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.16 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.740 / defence 1.302 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.667 / defence 1.359. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.086. Teplice's attack strength of 0.740 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bohemians 1905 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.359 — this is suppressing Teplice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Teplice games / 30 Bohemians 1905 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 40% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 1905 29%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Bohemians 1905 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Teplice at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Teplice if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates are neutral: Teplice 50% | Bohemians 1905 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 | Competition: Czech Liga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 40% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 1905 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Teplice 1.16 / Bohemians 1905 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.740 / def 1.302 | Bohemians 1905 attack 0.667 / def 1.359 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Teplice (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Bohemians 1905 xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 kick off?
Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 April 2022 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Bohemians 1905?
Teplice 2 - 2 Bohemians 1905.
Where is Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 part of?
Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 is a Relegation Round - 1 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 40% chance of winning, Bohemians 1905 a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Teplice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Teplice and Bohemians 1905 will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Bohemians 1905?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Teplice and Bohemians 1905 in?
Teplice (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Bohemians 1905 (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.74x the league average against Bohemians 1905's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bohemians 1905's attack (0.67x) against Teplice's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Teplice Win
40%
2.48
30%
3.29
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.10
0.94
Bohemians 1905 xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
9%
10.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 11.5 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Bohemians 1905?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Teplice and Bohemians 1905 expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Teplice and 0.94 for Bohemians 1905, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Bohemians 1905?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, Teplice have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 8W 3D 19L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Bohemians 1905's form line: 6W 8D 16L from 30 games, 0.87 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for Teplice against 0.87 for Bohemians 1905. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.07 PPG from 15 outings (5W 1D 9L).
On the road, Bohemians 1905 have gone 1W 4D 10L from 15 away games — 0.47 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bohemians 1905's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Teplice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Teplice are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Bohemians 1905 are on 1.13 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians 1905 in 63%.
Last 30 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Current Season
Bohemians 1905
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Bohemians 1905 in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 8W 3D 19L in their last 30 games (0.90 PPG), while Bohemians 1905 have gone 6W 8D 16L in their last 30 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Bohemians 1905 away?
Teplice's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.07 PPG; Bohemians 1905 away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Teplice have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Teplice won 3-0 on 2 Aug 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Teplice have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians 1905 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Teplice
3
Draws
3
Bohemians 1905
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Bohemians 1905?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 4, Bohemians 1905 have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Bohemians 1905 last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Teplice 3-1 Bohemians 1905.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Bohemians 1905?
Teplice have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Bohemians 1905 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 47%, Bohemians 1905 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Teplice) and 60% (Bohemians 1905). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 13% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Teplice have failed to score in 33% of games; Bohemians 1905 in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Bohemians 1905 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Bohemians 1905?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Teplice's recent matches and 60% of Bohemians 1905's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Bohemians 1905 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Teplice's matches and 60% of Bohemians 1905's.
Do Teplice and Bohemians 1905 tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Bohemians 1905 in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Teplice and Bohemians 1905 share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Relegation Round - 1, as Teplice and Bohemians 1905 drew 2-2 in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.16 xG and Bohemians 1905 0.94 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Teplice beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bohemians 1905 outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.74 / defence 1.30 against Bohemians 1905 attack 0.67 / defence 1.36, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 40% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 1905 29%, with Teplice to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 53%, Bohemians 1905 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Bohemians 1905's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 0.90 PPG, Bohemians 1905 0.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm. Bohemians 1905 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.