Teplice 2-3 Baník Ostrava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Baník Ostrava (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Teplice face Baník Ostrava.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Teplice host Baník Ostrava at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Teplice — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Teplice have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Teplice's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Teplice are significantly better at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech than their overall form suggests.
Across all Czech Liga games this season, Baník Ostrava have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Baník Ostrava have played only a handful of Czech Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baník Ostrava away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Baník Ostrava — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Teplice register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Baník Ostrava in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Baník Ostrava have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 5 encounters against Teplice's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2024, ended 1–4 with Baník Ostrava winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Baník Ostrava have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Teplice in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Baník Ostrava in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Teplice 54% versus Baník Ostrava 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Teplice 49% | Baník Ostrava 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Teplice 1.28 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Teplice attack 0.919 / defence 1.386 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.958 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.040. Data: 37 Teplice games / 37 Baník Ostrava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Teplice 34% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 39%. Fair-value odds: Teplice 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Baník Ostrava 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Baník Ostrava are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baník Ostrava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Teplice 60% | Baník Ostrava 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Teplice vs Baník Ostrava | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Teplice 34% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Teplice 1.28 / Baník Ostrava 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Teplice attack 0.919 / def 1.386 | Baník Ostrava attack 0.958 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Baník Ostrava (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Teplice xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Baník Ostrava xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Teplice vs Baník Ostrava kick off?
Teplice vs Baník Ostrava kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What was the final score in Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Teplice 2 - 3 Baník Ostrava.
Where is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava being played?
The match is being played at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech.
What competition is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava part of?
Teplice vs Baník Ostrava is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our statistical model gives Teplice a 34% chance of winning, Baník Ostrava a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Baník Ostrava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Teplice and Baník Ostrava will score (BTTS).
Will Teplice vs Baník Ostrava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
Record (5 meetings): Teplice 1W | Draws 0 | Baník Ostrava 4W.
What form are Teplice and Baník Ostrava in?
Teplice (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Baník Ostrava (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Teplice's attack at 0.92x the league average against Baník Ostrava's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baník Ostrava's attack versus Teplice's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baník Ostrava Win
34%
2.93
27%
3.66
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Teplice xG
Total xG
2.67
1.38
Baník Ostrava xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
9%
11.66
11%
9.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Teplice and Baník Ostrava expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Teplice and 1.38 for Baník Ostrava, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Teplice vs Baník Ostrava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Teplice have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 12W 9D 20L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Teplice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Baník Ostrava's form line: 17W 9D 15L from 41 games, 1.46 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for Baník Ostrava, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Teplice on 1.10 PPG, Baník Ostrava on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Teplice have posted 1.33 PPG from 21 outings (7W 7D 7L).
On the road, Baník Ostrava have gone 8W 4D 9L from 21 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Teplice are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Baník Ostrava are on 1.51 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Teplice
Early Season
Baník Ostrava
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Teplice and Baník Ostrava in coming into this match?
Teplice have gone 12W 9D 20L in their last 41 games (1.10 PPG), while Baník Ostrava have gone 17W 9D 15L in their last 41 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Teplice at home or Baník Ostrava away?
Teplice's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Teplice at home: 1.33 PPG; Baník Ostrava away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Teplice or Baník Ostrava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Teplice have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Baník Ostrava in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Teplice and Baník Ostrava runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Teplice go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2023, when Baník Ostrava won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Teplice's record when hosting Baník Ostrava specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Teplice
1
Draws
6
Baník Ostrava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
From 10 meetings on record, Teplice have won 3, Baník Ostrava have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Teplice and Baník Ostrava last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Teplice 2-1 Baník Ostrava.
Who has won more matches between Teplice and Baník Ostrava?
Baník Ostrava have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Baník Ostrava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Teplice 48%, Baník Ostrava 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Teplice) and 57% (Baník Ostrava).
On the defensive side: Teplice keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Teplice have failed to score in 29% of games; Baník Ostrava in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Teplice home games / Baník Ostrava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Teplice play Baník Ostrava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Teplice's recent matches and 52% of Baník Ostrava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Teplice vs Baník Ostrava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Teplice's recent games and 57% of Baník Ostrava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Teplice and Baník Ostrava tend to score early?
Teplice have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Baník Ostrava in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Baník Ostrava edge out Teplice 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Baník Ostrava beat Teplice 2-3 at AGC Aréna Na Stínadlech, Regular Season - 9, in the Czech Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Teplice 1.28 xG and Baník Ostrava 1.38 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Baník Ostrava outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Teplice attack 0.92 / defence 1.39 against Baník Ostrava attack 0.96 / defence 1.01, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Teplice 34% | Draw 27% | Baník Ostrava 39%, with Baník Ostrava to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Teplice 49%, Baník Ostrava 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Teplice's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Baník Ostrava's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Teplice 1.10 PPG, Baník Ostrava 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baník Ostrava win broke the near-deadlock. Teplice (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baník Ostrava (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.