Sparta Praha 2-0 Zlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Praha at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sparta Praha vs Zlin encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Czech Liga clash, Regular Season - 23 as Sparta Praha welcome Zlin to Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 February 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sparta Praha — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Czech Liga outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sparta Praha have posted 8W 2D 0L at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Sparta Praha are significantly better at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zlin stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Czech Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Zlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zlin's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Sparta Praha have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Sparta Praha, 0 for Zlin and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 7.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 5–2 with Sparta Praha winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Sparta Praha in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Zlin in-play tendencies (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 57% versus Zlin 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 62% | Zlin 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.99 xG and Zlin 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.336 / defence 1.124 | Zlin attack 0.631 / defence 1.287. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.198. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.336 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Zlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.287 — this is suppressing Sparta Praha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Sparta Praha games / 22 Zlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 64% | Draw 21% | Zlin 15%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Zlin 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Sparta Praha 50% | Zlin 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Zlin | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Feb 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 64% | Draw 21% | Zlin 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 49% | xG Sparta Praha 1.99 / Zlin 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.336 / def 1.124 | Zlin attack 0.631 / def 1.287 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Zlin xG
49%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Zlin kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Zlin kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 27 February 2022 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Zlin?
Sparta Praha 2 - 0 Zlin.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Zlin being played?
The match is being played at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Zlin part of?
Sparta Praha vs Zlin is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Zlin?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 64% chance of winning, Zlin a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Zlin?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sparta Praha and Zlin will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Zlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Zlin?
Record (1 meetings): Sparta Praha 1W | Draws 0 | Zlin 0W.
What form are Sparta Praha and Zlin in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Zlin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sparta Praha's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Zlin's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.99. The same calculation in reverse, Zlin's attack versus Sparta Praha's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
64%
1.56
21%
4.81
15%
6.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.84
0.85
Zlin xG
1.56
64%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
6.58
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
14%
7.32
Win to Nil
27%
3.65
2%
48.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 9.9 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Zlin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Zlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 0.85 for Zlin, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Zlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 21 outings, Sparta Praha have picked up 2.24 PPG on a 14W 5D 2L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zlin's form line: 7W 4D 10L from 21 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Zlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.05 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Zlin.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sparta Praha have posted 2.60 PPG from 10 outings (8W 2D 0L).
On the road, Zlin have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Zlin are on 1.24 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Zlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Zlin in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 14W 5D 2L in their last 21 games (2.24 PPG), while Zlin have gone 7W 4D 10L in their last 21 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Zlin away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.60 PPG; Zlin away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Zlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Zlin in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sparta Praha have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Sep 2021, when Sparta Praha won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sparta Praha's record when hosting Zlin specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
8
Sparta Praha
1
Draws
0
Zlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Zlin?
From 9 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 8, Zlin have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Zlin last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Sparta Praha 3-1 Zlin.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Zlin?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Zlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 50%, Zlin 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sparta Praha) and 50% (Zlin).
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Zlin in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Zlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Zlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sparta Praha's recent matches and 50% of Zlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Praha vs Zlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sparta Praha's recent games and 50% of Zlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Praha and Zlin tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Zlin in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Praha cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Zlin.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Zlin 2-0 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.99 xG and Zlin 0.85 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Zlin landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.34 / defence 1.12 against Zlin attack 0.63 / defence 1.29, drawn from 21/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 64% | Draw 21% | Zlin 15%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 62%, Zlin 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Zlin's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.19. Form held, and they took the win. Zlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.