Sparta Praha 4-1 Teplice – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Sparta Praha (83%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sparta Praha face Teplice.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Teplice make the trip to epet ARENA to face Sparta Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 March 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Sparta Praha (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Czech Liga fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Praha's home record at epet ARENA: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Czech Liga appearances (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at epet ARENA.
Teplice's overall Czech Liga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Teplice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Teplice's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Czech Liga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Sparta Praha. A 1.80 PPG lead over Teplice (2.50 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Sparta Praha 2W, Teplice 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Sparta Praha goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Teplice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 57% versus Teplice 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 61% | Teplice 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 3.14 xG and Teplice 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.390 / defence 0.716 | Teplice attack 0.732 / defence 1.482. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.389. Sparta Praha carry an above-average attack strength of 1.390 — their λ of 3.14 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Teplice bring a strong defensive rating of 1.482 — this is suppressing Sparta Praha's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sparta Praha's defence rating of 0.716 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Sparta Praha games / 51 Teplice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 83% | Draw 12% | Teplice 5%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.20 | Draw 8.33 | Teplice 20.00. The model has a clear lean to Sparta Praha (83%) — a 78pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.87. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.87 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Praha as the most likely outcome at 83% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sparta Praha 50% | Teplice 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Teplice | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: epet ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 83% | Draw 12% | Teplice 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 50% | xG Sparta Praha 3.14 / Teplice 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.390 / def 0.716 | Teplice attack 0.732 / def 1.482 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.14
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Teplice xG
50%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Teplice kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Teplice kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at epet ARENA.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Sparta Praha 4 - 1 Teplice.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Teplice being played?
The match is being played at epet ARENA.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Teplice part of?
Sparta Praha vs Teplice is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 83% chance of winning, Teplice a 5% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sparta Praha and Teplice will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Teplice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Teplice?
Record (3 meetings): Sparta Praha 2W | Draws 1 | Teplice 0W.
What form are Sparta Praha and Teplice in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Teplice (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sparta Praha's attack rating (1.39) and Teplice's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 3.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Teplice's attack (0.73x) against Sparta Praha's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 4-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
83%
1.20
12%
8.29
5%
21.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
4 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.14
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
3.87
0.73
Teplice xG
1.20
83%
Home win
8.29
12%
Draw
21.69
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
4%
23.13
Win to Nil
40%
2.49
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.8 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Teplice expected to score?
The model projects 3.14 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 0.73 for Teplice, a combined total of 3.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Teplice?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Sparta Praha have picked up 2.11 PPG on a 35W 13D 8L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Teplice's form line: 14W 11D 31L from 56 games, 0.95 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Teplice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sparta Praha are the form team by 1.16 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Teplice.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sparta Praha have posted 2.33 PPG from 27 outings (19W 6D 2L).
On the road, Teplice have gone 4W 5D 18L from 27 away games — 0.63 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.12 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Teplice are on 1.12 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Teplice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Teplice in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 35W 13D 8L in their last 56 games (2.11 PPG), while Teplice have gone 14W 11D 31L in their last 56 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Teplice away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.33 PPG; Teplice away: 0.63 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Teplice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Teplice in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Praha won 0-3 on 9 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Teplice — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sparta Praha
4
Draws
0
Teplice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Teplice?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 6, Teplice have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Teplice last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Teplice 0-1 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Teplice?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Teplice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 63%, Teplice 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Sparta Praha and 74% for Teplice. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Teplice in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Teplice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Teplice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Sparta Praha's games and 56% of Teplice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sparta Praha vs Teplice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Sparta Praha's matches and 74% of Teplice's.
Do Sparta Praha and Teplice tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Teplice in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Praha run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Teplice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Teplice 4-1 at epet ARENA, Regular Season - 22, in the Czech Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 3.14 xG and Teplice 0.73 xG, a combined 3.87. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Sparta Praha beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.39 / defence 0.72 against Teplice attack 0.73 / defence 1.48, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 83% | Draw 12% | Teplice 5%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 83%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 61%, Teplice 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Teplice's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Sparta Praha (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.22 average — above their attacking norm. Teplice (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.