Sparta Praha 2-1 Slovan Liberec – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Praha at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Slovan Liberec make the trip to Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena to face Sparta Praha in Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sparta Praha's overall Czech Liga record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Praha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sparta Praha's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 0L across 8 games at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena this term (2.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.12 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena. Their home PPG of 2.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Sparta Praha are significantly better at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena than their overall form suggests.
Slovan Liberec (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Czech Liga outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Slovan Liberec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Slovan Liberec away from home this season: 3W 2D 2L from 7 away games — 1.57 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Sparta Praha against 1.90 for Slovan Liberec. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Sparta Praha — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Slovan Liberec — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Praha 53% versus Slovan Liberec 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Praha 60% | Slovan Liberec 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Praha 1.65 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Praha attack 1.089 / defence 0.925 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.901 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.294. Data: 15 Sparta Praha games / 15 Slovan Liberec games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Praha 51% | Draw 24% | Slovan Liberec 25%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Praha 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Slovan Liberec 4.00. Sparta Praha hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Praha at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Praha if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Sparta Praha 38% | Slovan Liberec 71%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec | Competition: Czech Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Praha 51% | Draw 24% | Slovan Liberec 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Sparta Praha 1.65 / Slovan Liberec 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Praha attack 1.089 / def 0.925 | Slovan Liberec attack 0.901 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Sparta Praha (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Sparta Praha xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Slovan Liberec xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec kick off?
Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What was the final score in Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec?
Sparta Praha 2 - 1 Slovan Liberec.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec being played?
The match is being played at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena.
What competition is Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec part of?
Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Czech Liga (Czech-Republic).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Praha a 51% chance of winning, Slovan Liberec a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sparta Praha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Sparta Praha and Slovan Liberec will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Slovan Liberec?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sparta Praha and Slovan Liberec in?
Sparta Praha (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Slovan Liberec (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sparta Praha's attack rating (1.09) and Slovan Liberec's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Slovan Liberec's attack (0.90x) against Sparta Praha's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Praha Win
51%
1.97
24%
4.09
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Sparta Praha xG
Total xG
2.73
1.08
Slovan Liberec xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
5%
20.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sparta Praha and Slovan Liberec expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Sparta Praha and 1.08 for Slovan Liberec, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sparta Praha come into this having played 15 games, going 10W 3D 2L for 2.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Sparta Praha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Slovan Liberec sit at 1.33 PPG from 15 outings (6W 2D 7L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Slovan Liberec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Praha carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.87 PPG clear of Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sparta Praha's home form reads 6W 1D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.71 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.20 PPG overall — Sparta Praha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Slovan Liberec have taken 1.57 points per game from 7 outings (3W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Praha come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sparta Praha are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Slovan Liberec are on 1.00 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Czech Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Praha
Blended
Slovan Liberec
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Praha and Slovan Liberec in coming into this match?
Sparta Praha have gone 10W 3D 2L in their last 15 games (2.20 PPG), while Slovan Liberec have gone 6W 2D 7L in their last 15 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Praha at home or Slovan Liberec away?
Sparta Praha's home record (2.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Praha at home: 2.71 PPG; Slovan Liberec away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Sparta Praha or Slovan Liberec been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Praha have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Slovan Liberec in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Czech Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sparta Praha have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Slovan Liberec — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sparta Praha
1
Draws
2
Slovan Liberec
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Praha and Slovan Liberec?
From 10 meetings on record, Sparta Praha have won 7, Slovan Liberec have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Praha and Slovan Liberec last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Slovan Liberec 0-2 Sparta Praha.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Praha and Slovan Liberec?
Sparta Praha have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sparta Praha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time.
Slovan Liberec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Praha 29%, Slovan Liberec 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Sparta Praha) and 57% (Slovan Liberec).
On the defensive side: Sparta Praha keep a clean sheet in 71% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Praha home games / Slovan Liberec away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Praha play Slovan Liberec?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Sparta Praha's recent matches and 71% of Slovan Liberec's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Praha vs Slovan Liberec usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Sparta Praha's recent games and 57% of Slovan Liberec's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sparta Praha and Slovan Liberec tend to score early?
Sparta Praha have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Slovan Liberec in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sparta Praha edge out Slovan Liberec 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Praha beat Slovan Liberec 2-1 at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Czech Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Praha 1.65 xG and Slovan Liberec 1.08 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Praha attack 1.09 / defence 0.93 against Slovan Liberec attack 0.90 / defence 1.10, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Praha 51% | Draw 24% | Slovan Liberec 25%, with Sparta Praha to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Praha 60%, Slovan Liberec 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Praha's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Slovan Liberec's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Praha arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.